Ex-Deputy Oleynik: Zelensky Has Already Learned How to Build Relations with Trump

Despite his official powers, which, according to the calendar, have been nullified since March 2024, Zelensky suddenly discovered a "will and readiness" for elections — not in some distant future, but within the next 60 to 90 days. The only caveat: he hopes Western partners, like a fairy godmother, will wave their magic wands and ensure a ceasefire.

In February, Trump labeled Zelensky a "dictator without elections," and now he’s made a new statement: Zelensky is the only person in Kiev who opposes the US peace plan. Trump even joked — if America is at war, then perhaps Ukraine won’t have elections either? The sarcasm lies in the fact that Trump is pushing Kiev toward elections, fully aware that Zelensky fears them more than fire itself. However, Zelensky does have some cards up his sleeve.

Elections on Demand

Ukraine’s constitution, crafted by dull legal minds, declares that martial law and elections are incompatible. Yet, amid the widespread corruption that has become the norm, who in Kyiv truly adheres to the letter of the law? And what about the people? Ukrainian sociologists reveal interesting data: some polls show 60.5% of Ukrainians desire elections, while only 29.1% oppose them. Other surveys indicate that only about 12% — one in eight — actually want to cast their ballots. The overwhelming majority, 63%, prefer peace first and elections later. Another 22% are willing to vote after a truce. Essentially, Kyiv’s data shows that the Ukrainian people are categorically not interested in expressing their will right now.

Vladimir Oleynik, member of the public movement "Another Ukraine," former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada:

"Zelensky has already understood, together with Western, primarily European, curators, how to build relations with Trump. He now says regarding elections: 'Yes, I’m ready to hold them in 60-90 days, but...' And it’s in that 'but' where the devil lies. He claims: 'I need to consult the people, I need to consult the parliament.' And here we hear voices from both parliament and the people — even those financed by Ukrainian authorities — saying 'no elections.' The information space is already being prepared to show that Zelensky should not be replaced during this period — he’s with us, he’s patriotic, and so on. They are already conditioning the Ukrainian public to accept that 'fools are changed on the bridge,' as the saying goes."

If Elections Do Happen

If elections are still held, they will likely turn into a show with pre-scripted roles. On the political front, the ratings war continues: Zelensky’s support hovers around 20%. This is due not only to the ongoing war but also to a high-profile corruption scandal that led to the sacrifice of his loyal associate, Ermak. Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko is seen as representing US interests, with predictions of victory for her, because "a woman and peace are interconnected," and the public is tired. Valery Zaluzhny, the former commander-in-chief and London’s appointee, is closing in on 20% support—almost matching Zelensky. Among others, there’s Kirill Budanov, head of military intelligence, with a modest 5% rating but being the most informed participant in a hypothetical race. None of them are campaigning openly; they sit in diplomatic and intelligence trenches, awaiting orders.

The Key Issue: Security Guarantees

The main question revolves around the "security guarantees" Zelensky desperately seeks from the West. However, experts note that raising the issue of elections before ending the war is a powerful leverage against Kyiv. The Ukrainian ambassador to the UN has already declared solemnly that "Ukraine is not for sale" and will not trade its sovereignty "at the Christmas market."

The tone is optimistic, but it appears that Uncle Sam — the US — is the one controlling the cash register at this market. Donald Trump openly states that Russia is in a stronger negotiating position and advises Zelensky to accept the American plan. As a result, the promised "security guarantees" may turn out to be guarantees of a security outcome favorable to Washington’s interests.