The long-awaited US-Iran talks – is the threat of war averted?

Trump told the press, "Negotiations with Tehran are going well," and then immediately signed an executive order raising tariffs for countries that trade with Iran, urgently calling on Americans to leave the Islamic Republic... Meanwhile, news is constantly coming in that Tehran has selected targets for a missile strike.

And so, amidst all this information noise, let's try to analyze the negotiations between Iran and the US in Oman.

As you can imagine, no significant progress has been made... The threat of war has not averted... But it appears that both Tehran and Washington are ready to make concessions. Now, let's take things in order...

The previous day, right up until late at night, and even this morning, conflicting reports emerged from Oman, where the Persians and Americans were communicating through intermediaries. In fact, the very fact that the negotiations took place could be considered a miracle: the meetings were originally scheduled for Istanbul, but were canceled at the last minute, and the willingness of both sides to travel to Muscat had long been unclear. And yet, the long-awaited contacts did take place: the Omani Foreign Minister communicated with the parties one by one, engaging in shuttle diplomacy. The successes were modest, but they seemed to be there:

Donald Trump, US President:

"It looks like Iran is very eager to make a deal. We just need to see what kind of deal it is. But the fact that Iran is very eager to make a deal is right. Last time they decided not to, but having understood the consequences, now they probably think differently. We'll see what the deal is, whether it's different from the last one. And we have a large armada, a huge fleet, heading to the region. It will be there, and we'll see how it all ends!"

The American approach to negotiating deal terms is well-known: ask for as much as possible, because in the bargaining process, a lot will have to be conceded. This is precisely the situation: Washington demanded agreement not only to abandon the nuclear program but also to halt Iran's production of ballistic missiles—a type of weapon capable of striking targets not only in Israel but also at various American sites in the region. Tehran categorically refused to discuss the missile issue, and its nuclear program, as stated, could be adjusted, but not terminated. According to preliminary data, Iran could reduce its uranium enrichment level from 60 to 20 percent—that is, guarantee the non-military nature of its nuclear program. The Persians rejected the possibility of exporting enriched uranium with the same categoricalness as the renunciation of ballistic missile production:

Mohammad Marandi, Iranian political scientist:

"Iran wants successful negotiations. Iran wants an agreement, but demands guarantees of its rights. Iran will not negotiate about its military capabilities, its allies, or its right to a peaceful nuclear program. The Americans will have to accept that Iran's missile capabilities will not only be preserved but will even increase—after all, we know that if we are weakened militarily, the United States and the Israeli regime will attack us!"

Already today, that is, after the first round of negotiations, the parties threw new cards on the table. The United States announced its readiness to impose 25% tariffs on goods from countries that purchase Iranian oil: the threat is clearly aimed at China, which imports up to 90% of all the "black gold" sold by the Persians abroad. In turn, Tehran announced that it had prepared a military action plan that would be implemented in the event of any attack on the country. The Iranians are prepared to launch immediate strikes against American bases in Syria, the Emirates, and Kuwait. Ballistic missiles are also aimed at targets in Israel:

Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister:

"Let no one be mistaken: the region cannot be maintained in stability by allowing one entity to be above the law! Impunity will not bring peace; it will only provoke larger conflicts!"

By all indications, Trump's original plan to destabilize Iran with remote strikes, plunge the country into chaos, and force a change of government has now been completely written off. The Persians effectively suppressed the recent unrest, and a new uprising is now impossible. In such a situation, launching an operation completely loses all sense for the Americans: a ground invasion is impossible, and an air war doesn't threaten Iran with catastrophic damage, but it promises significant losses for the Americans themselves. The opponents have no choice but to negotiate—and these should be initiated by raising the initial demands as high as possible:

Vasily Fatigarov, military political scientist (Russia):

"After all, Trump is not Biden. Trump is a very eccentric politician, sometimes making very tough decisions. Let's recall the capture of Maduro. But he still doesn't want to turn the world into nuclear rubble. This is evident in his cautious actions against Iran."