Who and How Are Trying to Stir Up Tensions in Iran —In-Depth Analysis

The situation around Iran is escalating rapidly. French diplomats are evacuating the country, while Sweden and the United States have issued urgent advisories for their citizens to leave immediately due to the rising risk of unrest.

Meanwhile, Iranian authorities assert that the country remains under control. They claim to have thwarted destructive forces within Iran, allegedly backed from abroad, attempting to destabilize the nation.

Despite these official statements, Western media outlets continue to fan the flames of tension. Reports highlight increased activity of American fighter jets in the region and even mention a sharp surge in the so-called “Pizza Index” near the Pentagon, suggesting heightened alertness.

Pressure Mounts on Tehran

Hundreds of thousands of Iranians are once again on the streets, but the tone of protests has shifted. Instead of widespread unrest, the demonstrations now largely focus on supporting the government and condemning external interference. Major cities across Iran have seen massive rallies, with protesters waving national flags and portraits of Supreme Leader.

Shahai, a resident of Tehran, expressed her sentiments:

"We came out to support our Imam, the leadership of the Islamic Revolution, and all martyrs. We tell the world: ‘America, Israel, stop. Take care of yourselves. Why don’t you learn from your mistakes?’ If we have problems, they are ours, and with God's help, we will overcome them."

Akbar Rakhimi, also from Tehran, added:

"We are here today to stand with our revered Supreme Leader and defend our oppressed people. We want to say to America: ‘We are not afraid of you.’"

Earlier, President Ebrahim Raisi called for such demonstrations, and on January 12, he joined protesters at a pro-government rally in Tehran. In a televised address, Raisi praised the unprecedented scale of the protests, claiming they demonstrated the vigilance and responsibility of the Iranian people. According to Fars News Agency, around three million participated.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abdollahian, stated that the situation is now under control, despite reports of violence and chaos. He accused armed terrorists of inciting violence, torching 53 mosques, and coordinating their actions online. Several hundred people have died during the unrest.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ismail Bagai condemned external interference:

“U.S. President and Zionist regime officials’ provocative statements are clearly aimed at fomenting violence, chaos, and instability within our country, increasing casualties and suffering among our people. Protesters in various regions are reportedly armed with both light and heavy weaponry.”

It is noteworthy that the U.S. leadership has not denied contacts with opposition figures. Recognizing that their plan may be failing, they have brought in Special Envoy Williamcoff, who recently held a phone conversation with Iran’s Foreign Minister. An in-person meeting is scheduled soon. Meanwhile, the U.S. advises its citizens to leave Iran immediately. Simultaneously, American fighter jets are reported to be active at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, just 300 km from Iran’s border. Experts suggest that Washington has yet to decide on a course of action regarding Tehran. The White House indicates that President Trump is exploring military options but prefers diplomacy.

Siawash Ranjbar-Daemi, a professor of Middle Eastern modern history at St. Andrews University, comments:

“It’s clear from the press that Trump is considering military strikes—possibly targeting the IRGC and other key sites. The problem is, Israel carried out a surprise attack in June, but that element of surprise no longer exists. Iran is preparing for another potential strike. The country is on high alert and will respond swiftly if attacked.”

For now, Trump has resorted to his usual tactic—imposing a 25% tariff on all countries trading with Iran, effective immediately and non-revisable. The EU, meanwhile, is discussing tightening sanctions and possibly designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization.

China, however, takes a different stance. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has called for restraint, emphasizing that the use of force or threats in international relations is unacceptable. Beijing urges all parties to work toward peace and stability in the Middle East.

As the tension continues to mount, the world watches closely — uncertain of what moves will follow in this complex geopolitical chess game.