Solidarity in response to external pressure
Security and economy as a recipe for survival of the Union State in the era of a new "Cold War". Today, the President of Belarus discussed in detail the results of large-scale talks with Vladimir Putin in Sochi with members of the government, heads of both chambers of parliament, heads of state corporations and law enforcement officers. The general conclusion was that there were no areas where the allies did not find solutions and agreements. From the skies open to Belarusians and Belavia, to counter-sanctions, oil supply and processing, the military-industrial complex, customs and tax issues.
Open skies for Belarusians and Belavia
Belavia became a victim of cynicism of the EU activists. The sky was closed, the company lost a quarter of its traffic, but now it got new one: ten flights to Moscow, seven to St. Petersburg, plus the regions and resorts of Russia and the CIS. The Prime Minister, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Transport were instructed to implement the agreements.
Opening the Crimea for Belarusians
The President requested to open the skies over the Crimea and the Crimean resorts for the Belarusians. at the meeting in Sochi. The Ukrainian authorities with their sanctions against Belarus did their best to make this question find a solution as well.
Belarus will be with oil
Another important issue of the Union's agenda is petrochemicals. The leaders agreed in Sochi that no sanctions will interrupt our supply - refining - fuel sales chain. The allies noticeably advanced in the issues of tax maneuver compensation and the common gas market.
To be precise, Russia's tax maneuver is a transition from customs duties on crude oil (which were shared with Belarus) to taxes for oil production (they remain entirely in Russia). The issue is solvable.
Vadim Yelfimov, political analyst, PhD in history, associate professor at the Belarusian State University: "These issues will be solved by fall. If we take into account the overall situation, Nord Stream 2, Ukraine's withdrawal from the market, the importance of Belarus as a gas transit country is increasing. Those who do not understand this do not understand the situation in the world."
The issue of counter-sanctions was also discussed in detail in Sochi. The two governments are already working in this direction. Belarus is not going to risk its economy on emotions, but the answers will be painful and in solidarity with Russia. Everyone who is willing to lose a large market will do so voluntarily. This is how the durability of the union state is tested in practice.
By the way, the hasty, nervous and general reaction of the European Union and Ukraine to the provocation with the airliner proves that it was premeditated. The main question is not even how, but why.
The government is already working on the retaliatory measures against the European Union, Ukraine has already received the answer with its haste. The Prime Minister is certain that no matter how the "partners" may try, the economy will cope with it.
Biden and COVID-19
The upcoming Putin-Biden negotiations and the gradual withdrawal from COVID restrictions were discussed in Sochi. By the way, experts argue what is more detrimental to the vital interests of our Eurasia - the ambitions of the United States with its satellites, or the virus, which has also become part of these ambitions.
Integration as a Strengthening of Sovereignty
With such an aggressive environment as today, Belarus and Russia have only two options left. We can either wait and see if it resolves itself or act pro-actively and build their own space, their new economic model, their own pool of allies and partners. Minsk and Moscow crossed the Rubicon last year. They chose the initiative and their national and allied interests.