Cost of Sanctions: Why European Gas Prices Could Skyrocket and What It Means for Europe

The energy situation across Europe is rapidly deteriorating. Gas storage levels in key countries such as Germany and France have plummeted to a critical 40%, nearing the threshold where a full-blown crisis could unfold. In an exclusive interview, political analyst Yuriy Voskresenskiy discusses the causes behind this alarming trend and its potential consequences.

According to the expert, by the start of the heating season on November 1, European nations had filled their gas reserves to 90-95%. However, unprecedented cold spells have caused a sudden surge in consumption. For instance, in Poland, gas stocks now stand at only 65%, down from 75% a year ago and 86.5% two years prior.

A Ticking Time Bomb

“If these frosts continue, gas consumption will spike sharply. Are we on the brink of a critical crisis? I believe not,” Voskresenskiy says. “But countries will have to buy gas at exorbitant prices.”

The Rising Cost of Alternative Supplies

The problem is that replenishing reserves now relies solely on expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG), which costs 1.5 to 2 times more than the previous pipeline Russian gas. Already, the price at the Dutch TTF hub has surged to $450 per thousand cubic meters, up from $200 at the start of winter. The analyst forecasts prices could rise further—to as much as $800—dealing a severe blow to households and businesses alike.

Politics and Logistics Complicate the Situation

Adding to the turmoil is Poland’s policy of reselling gas to Ukraine, which adds roughly 30% margin to the price. However, Voskresenskiy emphasizes that in case of logistical disruptions—such as harsh winter conditions in the United States or other factors—Warsaw will prioritize supplying its own industry, likely pulling back from exports.

“If logistics are disrupted, they will be forced to abandon aid because they need to support their own manufacturing sector, which will already be under significant strain,” he explains.

Europe’s Self-Destruction and Russia’s Reorientation

Voskresenskiy warns that the EU’s planned full ban on Russian gas imports from 2027 could be a self-destructive act—leading to further declines in living standards, deindustrialization in sectors like chemicals, metallurgy, and machinery, and a surge in civil unrest.

Meanwhile, Russia is accelerating its shift eastward.

“In the next 10, 20, even 30 years, the lion’s share of Russian gas exports will go to Southeast Asia,” the analyst predicts.

This is supported by major projects such as the existing Power of Siberia pipeline, the under-construction Power of Siberia 2, and new LNG plants like Arctic LNG 2. Russia’s fleet of gas carriers and the use of the Northern Sea Route are halving delivery times to China, which has already prepared a dedicated port for Russian fuel.