Sergey Lavrov: This war is not a hybrid war, but a real one

The decision has been made - German tanks are coming to Ukraine. This is officially announced. It is clearly decided to take the Ukrainian conflict to a new level - escalation is unlikely to change the situation on the fronts strategically, but it will definitely make the confrontation more destructive and bloody and seem to make it protracted: the West is categorically not interested in a quick settlement.

The pressure on German leadership for months has had an effect: Germany has officially announced its readiness to transfer 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. They are unlikely to change anything at the fronts, but now the formal taboo on arming the AFU with heavy modern armored vehicles has been lifted. The big western mass media have counted that NATO can supply in total up to 300 "Leopards" to the AFU. This will obviously take not weeks, but at least months: most of these tanks will probably be delivered to Ukraine by the end of the year. "Leopards" are considered to be the last word in tank building: they are literally stuffed with electronics and their qualified operation without long training of the crews is impossible. The Russian side has already stated that the transfer of the Leopards is not just a factual, but almost a formal declaration of war:

Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister:

“When we talk about what is happening in Ukraine, we say that this war is no longer a hybrid war, but a real war that the West has long prepared against Russia, seeking to destroy everything Russian, from language to culture, that has been in Ukraine for centuries, and banning people from speaking their native language.”

The history of the Ukrainian conflict suggests that the supply of Leopards is unlikely to lead to a change in the balance of power and a strategic shift. The allies have already transferred more than 400 Soviet-made tanks to Kiev - this has not significantly affected the course of the conflict, it is not without reason that they say that generals always prepare for the past war - they still imagine the movement of tank lions and strikes of tank wedges, as it was 80 years ago. In reality, modern heavy armored vehicles were massively used only in Iraq and Afghanistan, but only against a technically backward enemy. The situation in Ukraine is completely different.Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, even reminded us that history knows no example of a nuclear power being defeated on the battlefield. And the aims of Kiev's allies seem to be quite different - not victory, but the transformation of the conflict into a protracted its intensity regulated remotely.

Alexander Skubchenko, political scientist:

“Proxy states, colonies of NATO countries, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are essentially their military units. They arm their unit, they command that unit. We are not talking about helping Ukraine here. NATO is at war with Russia.”