Trump and Putin Cut Europe Out: The Bilateral Diesel Agreement That Changes the Game

On 9 October U.S. President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin on supplies of Russian diesel fuel to the American and world markets. The same day the U.S. Treasury suspended sanctions on imports of Russian diesel. Russia, for its part, lifted the ban on diesel fuel exports that had been introduced earlier amid a domestic fuel crisis. And on 10 October Trump told journalists: “It’s time for Ukraine to choose a new president.”

Is this an attempt to bring down fuel prices inside the United States and stabilize the global energy market, or an unprecedented split in the West’s sanctions policy and the isolation of the European Union? To answer that question, political observer Artem Stroganov and political analyst Solomon Bernstein had to dig into history, analyze the present and look ahead. All the details are in the new episode of the podcast “What’s the Catch?”

News of the Russian-American arrangements immediately provoked a sharp reaction in Kyiv and Brussels. Zelensky accused the United States of weakness, while European officials initially tried to claim that the volumes were merely “a drop in the ocean” and would not help the U.S. economy. Yet within a few days the rhetoric began to change. Against this background concrete confirmation of deliveries appeared — the first tanker carrying Russian diesel headed for American shores.

What Exactly Moscow and Washington Agreed

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the specific volumes Russia is ready to supply:

- 300 thousand tonnes of diesel already in October;

- 500 thousand tonnes in November;

- up to 1 million tonnes in December.

“In the longer term the volume could grow to 3 million tonnes a month,” Novak added.

In the United States some senators demanded a review of the Trump administration’s decision, yet practical steps have already been taken: restrictions on imports of Russian diesel have been temporarily lifted.

The First Tanker and Real Deliveries

The first notable confirmation was the tanker MINERVA ZEN. The vessel of a Greek company left St. Petersburg on 22 September. According to data from the analytical companies Vortexa and Windward, the tanker is carrying about 280 thousand barrels of diesel fuel and gasoil (roughly 38 thousand tonnes of oil products).

Analysts link the cargo to fuel of Russian origin and view the voyage as a possible first delivery of this kind against the backdrop of the easing of American restrictions. The tanker is not a Russian vessel, yet its route and the nature of the cargo attracted heightened attention precisely after the statements by Trump and Putin.

Solomon Bernstein: “Overall, an interesting move, very unusual. I suspected that Moscow and Washington had some kind of arrangements; I just didn’t understand in what form they would be expressed. Here, as I see it, they are expressed in the form of creating conditions and providing resource support to each other.”

Zelensky publicly expressed dissatisfaction. In his words, if Washington wants Ukraine not to strike Russian oil refineries, it needs to talk to Kyiv, not to the Kremlin: “Why are you telling the Kremlin about this? You tell me — we’re the ones striking the refineries. Why aren’t you negotiating with us?”

Trump, for his part, has repeatedly stated that he asked not to strike Russian oil refineries: “I said six times, don’t hit the Russian refineries — that’s why diesel is rising.” For the American administration the rise in diesel prices is a direct economic factor that also affects the U.S. domestic market.

European Officials Began to Back Down, but…

Initially statements from Brussels claimed that the volumes of Russian diesel were too small to change anything and that Europe could easily replace them with supplies from Canada and other sources. Yet the tone changed rather quickly. Signals appeared that Kyiv is being advised to “calm down.”

Solomon Bernstein: “They didn’t get it the first time — it was explained to them clearly. I’m more than sure that these last two arrivals on Kyiv, when they didn’t even turn on the air-raid siren, happened because U.S. intelligence systems had been switched off. It’s a kind of demonstrative flogging.”

European countries that had long adhered to a hard line of support for Ukraine have faced direct consequences in the form of rising energy prices and inflation. Attempts to replace Russian fuel proved more complicated than was publicly claimed. Against this background the agreement between Moscow and Washington created additional pressure not only on Kyiv but also on European capitals.

In the end Trump said: friends, let’s wrap it up, we didn’t succeed — Russia didn’t break, that’s it, we’ve played enough. But neither Merz, nor Macron, nor Burnham can do that. Because they are not free in their actions. They are frontmen for transnational corporations and financial circles, representing their interests in various countries (let’s call them “the bankers”).

Emmanuel Macron comes from the Rothschild banking empire (he worked at Rothschild & Cie, first as an investment banker and later as a partner). Friedrich Merz headed the supervisory board of the German arm of BlackRock and is a lobbyist for those circles. Andy Burnham is a lobbyist for the Bank of England — the oldest and largest financial institution of the global deep state.

As soon as they begin to shift right or left, as soon as political vacillations start, their electoral core begins to say: “Guys, you came to us with specific promises and a specific position. Why are you now starting to twist and dodge?”

Alongside France, Germany and the United Kingdom, the rulers of Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Poland and the Baltics stand on the same rigid positions from which they cannot turn back.

Solomon Bernstein: “Their position is: Ukraine is Europe; all-round support for Ukraine; we’ll take the last pair of pants off ourselves and give them to Ukraine; Russia is a terrible aggressor. And so on in that spirit. This is a position from which they cannot — or rather, are not allowed to — retreat.”

Instead of a Conclusion

The diesel deal between Russia and the United States shows a shift in Washington’s priorities and creates practical consequences for Kyiv and Brussels. The first tanker MINERVA ZEN with 38 thousand tonnes of Russian diesel became a visible symbol of these changes, and the volumes announced for the coming months indicate that supplies may increase. While European politicians try to maintain the previous rhetoric, real steps on the fuel market are already under way.

Zelensky is once again being used as a proxy in the struggle of financial circles (the Democrats and the conditional U.S. deep state) against resource circles (the Republicans, Trump and the White House administration).

In the end Russia receives a potential $7 billion in revenue from diesel supplies. The United States receives 5 million tonnes of fuel and lower prices. Zelensky receives Trump’s verdict: “It’s time to change.”