What’s the Catch? Zelensky Threatens to “Close” Russian Airspace. Should Putin Panic?

What’s the Catch? Zelensky threatens to “close” the airspace of Russia. Is it worth for Putin to begin to panic?

On 1 September 2026 Zelensky in an evening address warned airlines, insurers, and ambassadors: Russian sky “is becoming unsafe,” since “drones in the sky of Russia will appear so that this will have to be reckoned with.” The formula of Kyiv is “we do not threaten civil boards,” but “there is no place for civil aviation among drones.” Vladimir Putin answered this: “With terrorists they do not conduct talks… If, God forbid, such tragedies will occur, we will find with what to answer.”

Some saw in Zelensky’s words an attempt economically to “close” Russian sky without a direct strike on a liner, others — a passage to rhetoric that international law reads as the creation of a threat to civil aviation.

What this was and for what this is needed in fact? With their thoughts on this account in the podcast “What’s the Catch?” television presenter and media expert Alexander Khorovets, political analyst Solomon Bernstein, and international observer of the channel First Information Yana Mendeleva shared. Spoiler: this you clearly did not expect.

“A bid for terrorism”

In the direct sense Zelensky, it seems, did not declare a hunt on passenger aircraft. He said more vaguely and ambiguously:

Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles will be present in Russian sky in such a scale that safe days there no longer exist;

the MFA of Ukraine notifies ICAO;

the addressees are carriers still flying to Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and other hubs.

What is this — a new turn of the conflict (Kyiv publicly spoke of a goal of the order of a thousand drones a day), a logistical signal to those who continue to use Russian airspace (Turkey, China, the UAE, and others), or another ultimatum (the sky will again become safe when real movement toward peace appears)?

Or, perhaps, another provocation? Kyiv asks for meetings, but simultaneously declares Russian sky a zone of unmanned war.

Juridically a strike on a civil air vessel is a war crime. Even the creation of an intentional risk in the echelons of civil aviation goes beyond the framework of the usual practice of strikes on refineries, warehouses, and military objects. Putin drew a border: for now this is a “bid,” and not a completed act; if it comes to a tragedy — there will be an answer.

Alexander Khorovets: It is clear that Zelensky now as never needs an escalation, for the situation on the line of combat contact is such that “Ukraine fearlessly retreats, and Russia cowardly advances.” And Volodya has nothing left but to commit terrorist acts in the world.

Both sides have long struck the infrastructure of the opponent, and this is not news. Here the question is where a “lawful military target” ends and a civil object begins. Because a purposeful attack on civil air vessels is already terrorism.

Do drones fly next to aircraft?

Another question is whether Ukrainian drones will be able to “reach” Russian aircraft. Most passenger liners rise to a height from 9 to 12 km. Airplane-like reconnaissance and strike drones more often “work” substantially lower. Therefore “to fly next to” in the literal sense is very improbable.

But there are other risks. And here they are quite real:

under a strike of enemy UAVs approaches and holding patterns at airports may fall;

in the case of a mass launch of drones air defense will work in the same airspace where civil aircraft fly.

And there is still a psychological moment — insurers may “push off.” Therefore Zelensky’s formulation strikes not so much the physics of flight as the market of insurance and the cabinets of aviation regulators of neutral countries.

Several hours of panic — and, properly, that is all

European carriers have almost not used Russian sky since 2022. Therefore Zelensky’s statement little agitated them. The calculation was, probably, on Turkish, Chinese, Middle Eastern companies.

Solomon Bernstein: The company Turkish Airlines tensed, partially Pegasus, having limited flights literally for several hours. And that is all. Then everything returned back.

The airline Emirates, by branch summaries, did not change the schedule of flights.

The conclusion for now is restrained: a macroeconomic collapse of the air bridge Russia–Asia did not occur. But the very fact that the addressee of Kyiv was not only Moscow but also the world community says that the goal was to force third countries to count flights through the RF as a political risk.

A separate (and the most dangerous) hypothetical scenario: an error of identification and a strike in the district of the route of Air China or another Asian board. The price of such an error for Kyiv would be incomparable with any tactical gain.

Yana Mendeleva: There is no one more terrible than a person who already has nothing to lose. And Zelensky has lost his country, lost the people, lost part of his associates who helped him come to power — some he jailed, some he dismissed. He remained with nothing and practically in solitude…

Leipzig, Bonn, and a “provocation of Russian special services”

Literally in recent days one more entertaining event occurred. In Germany they “established” the identities of two presumed participants of an attack of unmanned aerial vehicles on the airport of Leipzig. Whom do you think this is? Correct! Western media write that one of the suspects was born in Russia and has Latvian citizenship; the second (ATTENTION!) is a native of Belarus, also having a Russian passport. Bingo!

Solomon Bernstein: I with difficulty understand how they “sell” this to their taxpayers. Can it be that on the entire path of following of a “Russian drone” not a single air defense, not a single radar was found? And even if one assumes that this drone was launched by a certain “waiter” from the territory of the FRG, then then a second question: and with what then do the special services of Germany occupy themselves? However one turns it — nowhere does it converge.

Practically simultaneously with this Germany announced the closure from 18 September of the Russian general consulate in Bonn. This statement Minister of Foreign Affairs of the FRG Johann Wadephul made at a press conference dedicated to the attack of unmanned aerial vehicles on the airport of Leipzig. This measure, by his words, is taken “for the strengthening of the security of Germany.” The ambassador of Germany in Russia, when he was called onto the carpet in the Russian MFA, stated that in fact relations between the two countries are torn at the diplomatic level.

And who in the end will suffer from this — politicians, diplomats? No. Ordinary citizens will suffer, rank-and-file holders of a passport of the Russian Federation. For them the closure of the general consulate in Bonn is simply a catastrophe. People on forums say that the consulate in Berlin even before this did not especially cope, therefore the majority had to travel to Bonn. What now will be with the replacement of documents, registration, the receipt of extracts is unclear…

Winter, weapons, and talks without Europe

Germany, covering itself with a Russian agenda, announced the beginning of the production of 5,000 unmanned aerial vehicles which it will supply to Ukraine, and the transfer of additional missiles for IRIS-T.

And all would be nothing, but IRIS-T is a means of engagement, simply a missile of short and medium range. With it one cannot shoot down either “Zircons” or “Iskanders”… With these German missiles one can only deliver strikes, but the cost of one launch (shot) of an antiaircraft missile of the IRIS-T complex amounts from €320–380 thousand for the base version to €900 thousand for modified missiles. Therefore it is far cheaper to deliver strikes with unmanned aerial vehicles.

And still one must not forget that soon it is winter. And it promises to be heavy both for Ukraine (Moscow announced a new cycle of strikes on Ukrainian energy) and for the EU, for the fill of European underground gas storage facilities (UGS) is at one of the lowest levels for the time of observations since 2011.

Against this background Putin’s formula “ready to meet, but the meeting must be filled with meaning” and the observed shift of talks into the link Moscow–Washington place Brussels and Kyiv in a strange position. The narrative “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” which was the main one still a year or a year and a half ago, today has changed to “Everything about Ukraine without Ukraine and Europe.” And this already is a sign of the fatigue of sponsors and a narrowing of the space for deals.

Solomon Bernstein: Russia has simply tired of the fact that it is deceived. It was said directly: guys, you make the first step, you show your intention not in words but in practice.

What will come of all this we will probably learn quite soon.