Why Kyiv Froze Minerals Deal with United States

Kyiv suddenly froze the minerals deal with the United States. Vladimir Zelensky's administration ordered the slowdown not because American businessmen suddenly fell out of love with lithium, but because they failed to appease US President Donald Trump.

The calculation was simple: Ukraine provides the mineral resources, and the US provides weapons and guarantees. But the American President has shifted arms supplies to a commercial basis, and now Kyiv is frantically creating new tensions to have leverage with the US and Russia in negotiations. After all, when the Ukrainian government has no bargaining chips, it draws them up on cardboard.

The deal, which Kyiv pushed so hard that even parliamentarians voted without reading the full text, was supposed to be a golden key. Ukrainian deposits—titanium, lithium, uranium, graphite—are valued in the trillions of dollars. Trump saw it as a way to recoup taxpayers' money, while Kyiv saw it as a perpetual feeding trough for the military (and other forces). Yes, it was a political marriage of convenience, with half the country leased out, but Trump doesn't hand out candy for free.

Ukraine received a "pay or leave" commercial deal. The expectation that American business would motivate Washington to stay in the conflict proved worse than the hryvnia's exchange rate. Today, the US is selling Ukraine weapons using funds allocated by Europe. There were and are no security guarantees. Ultimately, the unspoken order to stall the deal became a logical consequence. The tender for a large lithium deposit in the Kirovohrad region, won by a consortium involving Trump's friend Ronald Lauder, was challenged in court. American investors paused – they are uncertain about the timeline for an end to the conflict. Simply put, they realized that investing in Ukraine is like buying a ticket on the Titanic, only more expensive. While Kyiv stalled the deal, Trump pointedly ignored Zelensky at the G7 summit, and contact between them never took place. Moreover, the American leader didn't even say hello. Oleh Soskin, a former aide to former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, stated that "Trump will not abandon Putin. Trump will not engage with Ukraine at all." And while Kyiv had previously at least pretended to have influence in Washington, the mask has now been torn off.

Ivan Lizan, economist and head of the analytical bureau of the SONAR-2050 project (Russia):

"Trump promoted the deal as a media justification for the need to end free aid to Ukraine in the form of free financing and free supplies of weapons and ammunition. At the time, it was positioned on the principle of getting a good deal of wool from a black sheep and was presented as a way to recoup the senseless spending on Ukraine by the previous Biden administration. Expectations for this deal were extremely inflated; it existed mainly in the media sphere. At the same time, those who say that the Kyiv authorities now have no motivation to implement the deal's provisions because Trump failed to do what Kyiv expected of him are also partially correct. The deal could be recalled, and then it will become an additional tool for the colonization of Ukraine, meaning the country will be put on a meter, as Trump originally planned."

Cooling relations with Washington directly influence Kyiv's drastic moves toward Belarus. At that moment, Minsk opened dialogue with the United States, and for Kyiv, this was a double blow. And now Zelensky is shouting about "unusual activity" on the border, Russian drones flying over Belarusian skies, and new bases. They've begun fortifying their northern borders, portraying a "Belarusian threat." Harsh statements and the demonstrative reception of political migrants from Belarus are being used as an attempt to pressure Minsk. Kyiv is trying to convince the West that a "terrible neighbor" is about to arrive from the north. Kyiv also doesn't like the Belarusian-American approach. The United States is already ready to buy Belarusian potash and improve relations with Minsk. If this happens, Kyiv will lose yet another bargaining chip.

Claims of a "Belarusian threat" are a proven way to recapture the attention of Western media and try to convince the EU and NATO that the conflict is escalating and spreading. A classic information operation is to recapture the US's attention, justify aid, weaken Minsk, create tensions, and have additional bargaining chips with Russia and the United States. Domestic viewers must see "activity," while external viewers see "conflict expansion."

So Kyiv froze the subsoil deal with the US not because it suddenly embraced sovereignty, but because Trump refused to play the charity game. This entire geopolitical spectacle resembles a bad play, where every act is an attempt to wring emotions from the audience that aren't there. But the US audience is already tired, and now Kyiv will have to play without its main sponsor, guarantees, and, one hopes, illusions. Zelensky is left high and dry, as the subsoil deal yielded neither weapons nor even a proper handshake at the G7 summit. After all, you can't sell what you don't have. Just as you can't buy what can't be sold.

Photo: RIA Novosti