70% Chance: Super El Niño Could Be the Strongest on Record

Experts are raising the stakes on the developing El Niño.

According to a new forecast from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released August 13 and reported by CNN, there is now almost a 70 percent chance that the forming super El Niño will turn out to be the strongest in the entire observational record.

Earlier projections had only placed it among the largest episodes on record. The upgrade stems from how quickly the current event is intensifying and from computer models that almost unanimously point to a stronger-than-expected peak in late fall and early winter.

El Niño is the climate cycle marked by above-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. That warmer water pumps massive amounts of heat into the atmosphere through clouds and heavy rainfall, shifting weather patterns worldwide: higher odds of drought in Indonesia and Australia, flooding in parts of South America, and a range of other effects across the globe.

Intensity is measured by how far ocean temperatures in the key tropical Pacific region rise above normal. NOAA now expects the current event to exceed even the powerful 1982-83 super El Niño, long considered the benchmark.

Every El Niño is unique. This one is entering uncharted territory: never before has an event of this projected strength occurred against the backdrop of such a hot global climate. The combination of global warming and a record El Niño could amplify extreme heat and other disasters in ways that are hard to forecast precisely.

That said, a record-strength super El Niño does not automatically guarantee far worse impacts everywhere or in every region that typically feels its influence, NOAA specialists caution. It does, however, raise the probability of the classic weather effects — especially in autumn and winter, when its influence on the Northern Hemisphere peaks.