Belarusian Potash Benefits from Predictable Routes Amid Hormuz Uncertainty, Says Analyst

The global economy is currently paying a “geopolitical tax.” According to Nikita Tatishev, an analyst at the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research, what worries markets most is not the hypothetical closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the absence of predictability.

“Uncertainty is immediately factored into insurance risks and forces a reconfiguration of logistics,” Tatishev said. “A state of constant uncertainty — this endless dread — is much harder to handle than being able to calculate a specific risk, even if that risk is high.”

He added that the global economy may have to absorb not only the aftershocks from the Strait of Hormuz, but also other potential geopolitical disruptions in the region. In particular, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, located further south, could also be closed due to the conflict in Yemen. This would effectively paralyse certain shipping routes, including those for oil.

As a result, the economy is unable to understand what to expect next. The lack of a planning horizon is significantly worse than the concrete difficulties experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. At some point, insurance costs for shipping through the region may become so high that they will inevitably push up final prices for both food and energy carriers.

Regarding Belarusian potash fertiliser producers, Tatishev noted that the situation is relatively favourable. Belarusian potassium does not depend on the Strait of Hormuz, as it is transported via land routes. He also pointed out that alternative logistics corridors, such as the North–South corridor and the Northern Sea Route, are currently in high demand.