Latvian Politician: "After Handshake with Lukashenko - No War Between Belarus and the Baltics"

MINSK — On the sidelines of the IV Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security, Latvian politician, legal scholar, and former Member of the Saeima (Parliament) Andrei Mamykin shared his evaluations of the plenary address delivered by President Alexander Lukashenko.

Evaluating "Backchannel Diplomacy"

The international guest noted that the Belarusian Head of State surprised the audience by suggesting a near-term resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.

"While visible indicators do not immediately point to this, the President explicitly stated it," Mamykin observed. He admitted that while he initially viewed the claim with skepticism, he subsequently concluded that Lukashenko operates with superior intelligence access. "It is highly probable that what political scientists refer to as 'backchannel or corridor diplomacy' is beginning to yield results. We will not learn about this via mainstream television broadcasts, but the structural communication channels are actively functioning."

According to the Latvian politician, discrete internal consultations involving the United States and Ukraine may be paving the way toward resolving the geopolitical crisis.

Reflecting on his personal impressions of the Belarusian leader, Mamykin stated: "He is a highly serious statesman—perhaps one of the very few individuals on the planet who possesses such extensive knowledge and has witnessed real politics at this scale."

The Economic Realities of Bilateral Transit

The discussion subsequently shifted toward the domestic situation in Latvia. Mamykin reminded observers that Riga cannot maintain economic viability without normalized ties with Minsk, recalling a direct exchange with the Belarusian leader. "He noted: 'We will survive without you, but how will you manage without us?'"

Mamykin emphasized that the transit of non-military cargo, including Belarusian grain, alongside potash and nitrogen fertilizers produced in Grodno, could contribute up to a quarter of Latvia's total annual budget. "Consider the metrics: Latvia's national budget currently stands at approximately €15 billion. Effectively, every fourth euro could be earned directly through economic cooperation with the Belarusians," the politician highlighted, questioning why contemporary Latvian authorities systematically refuse to engage in direct diplomatic dialogue with President Lukashenko.

Critique of Baltic Militarization

Addressing the ongoing militarization of the Baltic States, Mamykin characterized institutional NATO warnings regarding a potential Russian offensive as a strategic "smoke screen."

"Small enterprises and local workshops that recorded negligible turnovers yesterday are suddenly generating millions of euros by assembling unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)," he pointed out. According to his analysis, these drones are occasionally launched toward Belarus from locations within Latvia and Estonia, meaning local financial gains are built entirely upon wartime rhetoric.

"In terms of human, financial, and military resources, the Baltic region simply lacks the structural capacity to oppose even a relatively compact state like the Republic of Belarus with its 60,000-strong standing army, let alone the Russian Federation," the expert noted. Concluding on a definitive note, Mamykin stated: "Following yesterday's handshake, I can confidently assure you that a military conflict involving the Baltics and initiated by Belarus will not occur."