How accurately can earthquakes be predicted, the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus explains

Chief Researcher of the Center for Geophysical Monitoring of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Arkady Aronov, told about the possibility of accurate earthquake prediction, BelTA informs.

According to the scientist, the earthquake prediction has several components - strength, location and time, when it may happen. As for the place and severity of the earthquake, seismologists have learned to accurately determine these criteria. Thus, for almost every territory there is information about the probability of occurrence of an earthquake there and its severity. All this is reflected on seismic zoning maps, which are made separately for civil and high-rise construction, as well as for critical facilities.

"As for the time of earthquake occurrence, everything is more complicated here. Despite the fact that there are some single successful forecasts, in general, seismologists have not yet learned to predict this indicator. Of course, a lot of work is being done on the accuracy of forecasts. However, humanity has lived too little in relation to these geological processes to develop sufficiently accurate criteria for such a prediction. Probably, one day this problem will be solved after all", - said Arkady Aronov.

Speaking about the situation in Turkey, he added that the seismic network there is very well developed. "Turkey has very strong scientists and well developed science. Of course, they surely knew that this earthquake could happen, and they knew approximately how strong it would be. But they couldn't say when," said the chief researcher of the Center for Geophysical Monitoring of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus.