Peace Proclaimed, Yet Unsealed: How the US-Iran Conflict Remains Trapped in the Grey Zone

Has the fire in the Middle East truly been extinguished? Donald Trump has informed Congress that the war with Iran is over. The White House chose not to seek permission to extend operations beyond the legal deadline. At the same time, Trump “made it clear,” notes the Associated Press, that the military conflict may still be far from resolved.

History offers formulas that become diagnoses of an entire era. Tolstoy’s immortal epic War and Peace presents two opposing states and two profound meanings. The West, it seems, now lives by a different equation: war is never declared, yet it rages on; peace is never truly concluded, yet it is loudly proclaimed. And it is precisely in this murky intermediate space — the “grey zone” — that the Middle Eastern conflict has become ensnared.

De jure, the end of hostilities has been announced. De facto, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and Tehran retains both the will and the capacity to launch missiles and drones.

Under the United States War Powers Resolution of 1973, the President must consult Congress not only before initiating hostilities but also at regular intervals until they conclude. A president may conduct military operations without parliamentary approval for no more than sixty days. On May 1, the clock on Capitol Hill struck its final hour, and Trump made his move. The master of the White House informed lawmakers that combat operations against Iran had been “terminated.”

“We see that, despite this statement, the armed forces of the United States continue to blockade maritime routes around Iran — an action that, from the standpoint of the UN Charter, constitutes an act of war, an act of aggression. Therefore, we may conclude that the United States seeks to wage war without declaring it,” observed political analyst Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club.

Trump’s formal declaration has proven insufficient to douse the political firestorm inside the United States. Debate surrounding the Middle Eastern campaign has not subsided; instead, it has taken on the character of a systemic crisis. Public opinion polls reveal that Americans themselves are growing weary of the Iranian adventure: 61 percent now consider the war a mistake, according to The Washington Post. Sociologists note an alarming parallel with public sentiment during the Vietnam era in 1971 or the height of the Iraq occupation in 2006.

CBS News reports that the real cost of the war to the United States is twice the $25 billion figure acknowledged by the Pentagon, while stocks of munitions have been severely depleted. To these domestic troubles has been added a sharp cooling of relations with key NATO partners.

“The Americans clearly have no strategy, and the problem with such conflicts is that one must not only enter them but also know how to leave. We witnessed this painful truth too bitterly over twenty years in Afghanistan and in Iraq. As I have already said, this whole affair was, at the very least, ill-considered. An entire nation has been humiliated. It pains me to say it, but the situation is extraordinarily difficult,” emphasised German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

The rift with Germany has now entered an open phase. A Pentagon spokesman has confirmed the decision to withdraw 5,000 American troops from the country within the next six to twelve months.

“Iran proved to be a piece of meat too large for the United States to swallow. For NATO and for the countries of Europe, the blockade of the strait and the surge in oil prices have become an enormous problem — in other words, a vast humanitarian catastrophe,” declared political technologist Alina Zhestovskaya, a member of the Russian Association of Political Consultants.

In practical terms, Trump’s statement has reset the sixty-day countdown while preserving his legal right to resume operations at any moment. There is still no viable exit scenario. The negotiating process has reached an impasse because of fundamental disagreements between the parties. Washington insists on the immediate handover of all enriched uranium — a demand Tehran deems unacceptable. The Iranian plan for phased de-escalation has been rejected outright by the Americans. That initiative envisioned first the lifting of the blockade on ports and the Strait of Hormuz, along with security guarantees, with discussion of the nuclear programme reserved for the final stage.

“The problem with the American side is that it has always sought to impose its maximum demands throughout the negotiations and the entire diplomatic process, pushing the other party toward accepting them,” stated Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Meanwhile, Trump has wasted no time in turning his gaze toward new horizons. He is already drawing up ambitious plans for Cuba, intending to dispatch a naval force to the island once the Iranian chapter is closed.

One story has yet to end, yet a second is already gathering momentum. Behind all the political formulas and strategic experiments stand ordinary people who each night draw their curtains to shut out the flashes in the sky. Unnoticed and uncounted, they are the ones who pay the price for the Western version of Tolstoy’s paradox. They care nothing for geopolitical chess. They have no need for “final offers” or “indefinite timelines.” They simply want to wake each morning beneath a peaceful sky — one beneath which it is possible not merely to survive, but truly to live.