Wall Street Journal describes three scenarios for how events will unfold in Ukraine in 2026

The American publication The Wall Street Journal has presented an analysis of the possible developments in the conflict in Ukraine in 2026, highlighting three key scenarios.

The central thesis of the publication is the prediction of a high probability of continued hostilities, while any diplomatic initiatives to end them are highly likely to be unsuccessful.

Nevertheless, this year, rising tensions could push one side toward a compromise they are not yet ready to make.

The main scenarios are as follows: The first and most likely scenario is a further continuation of the war. Analysts note that, despite the Kremlin's confidence that Ukrainian forces will exhaust themselves before the Russian economy, Ukraine is demonstrating significant resilience.

At the same time, the cession of uncontrolled territories remains unacceptable to the Ukrainian leadership and society. Zelensky insists that any discussions about borders must be inextricably linked to providing Kiev with ironclad security guarantees, including the deployment of foreign military bases.

Northeastern Ukraine

The second scenario considers a situation in which Ukraine could be the first to give ground. The main risk for Kiev is the physical and moral exhaustion of the armed forces, where motivated veterans are not relieved from the front for years, and new conscripts frequently desert.

If this trend intensifies, Ukraine may be forced to accept a painful agreement that would include territorial concessions, limitations on military potential, and the restoration of Russian influence—all with only nominal security guarantees from the West.

The third scenario assumes that the war could end due to Russian fatigue. The country's economy is under significant pressure from low oil prices, attacks on refining infrastructure, and sanctions against the so-called "shadow fleet." The war has distorted the economy, making it overly dependent on military spending and cooperation with China. Tighter and more stringent enforcement of international restrictions could hasten Moscow's decision to seek a way out of the conflict.

Thus, according to The Wall Street Journal, the path to peace in 2026 will be extremely difficult. Although pressure on both sides is increasing, fundamental differences and mutual mistrust remain, making breakthrough negotiations unlikely in the near future.