Orban 2.0: Why Hungary's Course Will Remain the Same Under a New Prime Minister?

The Hungarian elections are perhaps the most striking proof that we live in a society of spectacle. In Budapest, in every village on Lake Balaton, and in dozens of European capitals, there was a sense of putting everything on the line: sink or swim!

The participants, spectators, and directors of the electoral spectacle cranked up the agitation to an unbelievable pitch, as if the fate of not just one small country, but the European Union, Europe as a whole, transatlantic unity, NATO, Ukraine, and the war raging there were being decided right then and there. Everyone played their assigned roles to the nines, not skimping on the sincerity of their emotions.

Péter Magyar, leader of the Tisza Party:

"We won not a small victory, but a huge one! We overthrew Orbán, liberated Hungary, and reclaimed our homeland! Our victory, while not visible from the moon, is certainly visible from every Hungarian window!"

There's a suspicion that US President Donald Trump was the hardest hit by Viktor Orbán's defeat: US Vice President J.D. Vance was sent to campaign for Orbán, and the US was convinced it was a genuine electoral wunderwaffe. Trump was so offended by the ungrateful Hungarians that he refused to even comment on their betrayal, no matter how much he was begged.

Hungarian nationalists celebrated Magyar's victory as if Admiral Miklós Horthy were leading them into battle again, or as if Lajos Kossuth's honvéds were about to attack the regiments of Nicholas I, "to beat them to the ground, to crush them to the ground," while crowds in the streets and subways of Budapest at times frantically chanted, "Russians, go home!"

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Less than 24 hours have passed, and the far right is probably already in mourning, as Péter Magyar, in collaboration with Moscow, will continue to complete the nuclear power plant and intends to purchase only Russian oil until 2035. In Hungary, the change of government seems to change absolutely nothing except rhetoric. The future prime minister also has extremely tense relations with Ukraine. He defended Viktor Orbán when Zelensky began threatening to assassinate him. If Magyar had his way, Kyiv wouldn't have received another euro cent. The problem is that it's still unclear how much freedom the European Commission will grant the new Hungarian prime minister. Orbán could have allowed himself anything, but he paid for it with a reputation as Europe's enfant terrible—the entire continental press campaigned against him, and Brussels officials, who showed no respect for propriety in this matter, didn't hesitate. If Magyar attempted to exercise arbitrary power, he would quickly be declared the "new Orbán," especially since European funds for Hungary have only been promised for release, and Budapest will receive the money only after all the conditions set by Brussels bureaucrats were met.

"Theoretically, the winner has secured such a majority that he can do anything, but there are obstacles. For example, the heads of state institutions are appointed by Orbán, and they cannot be fired. The future government will also be under intense pressure from the European Commission, which determines when and whether to unfreeze funds for Hungary. Magyar will have to pass a whole package of laws and reforms by August, and only a few months remain. How will the government handle, for example, the issue of Magyar's promised block on Ukraine's accession to the EU?" - Bulcsu Hunyadi, an analyst at the Political Capita center, cited the facts.

As ironic as it may sound, Hungarians have already elected Orbán again, whose main difference from the outgoing Orbán is only that the new one will be younger. Péter Magyar even rose to political prominence in the ranks of the Fidesz party, which lost the election, and the victorious Tisza is a programmatic twin of the movement led by Orbán. In other words, the prime minister, who is about to resign, failed not ideologically, nor because of the flaws in his management practices. No, he was simply expected to magically transform the country in a matter of years. He is blamed for the fact that EU membership hasn't transformed Hungary into a garden of earthly delights.

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The offended voter overlooks the fact that the EU has many priorities, and they sometimes even shift, but Hungary has never been one of them. And now Brussels has a new favorite: Ukraine. If Péter Magyar unblocks Zelensky's €90 billion allocation, it certainly won't bring Hungary any closer to prosperity.

Incidentally, it's curious what will happen to the recently seized 100 million (in March 2026, a large shipment of gold and currency transported for Ukrainian corrupt officials was detained on the outskirts of Budapest). Zelensky is demanding their return, but Orbán has categorically refused. Magyar's decision on this matter will say a lot about him.

So, the new prime minister will take office within 30 days. What's next?