Resource Leverage: How Canada Uses China in Trade Games with US

The recent cooperation agreement between Canada and China has become a significant event on the global stage, going beyond Ottawa's traditional foreign policy. Nikita Belenchenko, Director of the Center for International Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at BSU, stated on the program "Topical Interview" that this move reflects Canada's desire for greater independence and diversification of ties amid difficult relations with its key ally, the United States.

According to the expert, the initiative comes primarily from Canada, not China. China has long viewed Canada as an economic partner, but it is Ottawa that is now interested in rapprochement.

"Following the imposition of trade tariffs by the US, and in the context of tense American rhetoric towards its allies, Canada recognizes the need to diversify its markets and strengthen political interactions with external players," noted Nikita Belenchenko. "A partnership with China, which can hardly be called neutral towards the US, is a way to demonstrate its conditional independence to Washington."

Nikita Belenchenko, Rector of the Center for International Studies, Faculty of International Relations, Belarusian State University

Canada's actions echo the policies of several European countries, which are also seeking to reduce the risks of Washington's pressure by diversifying their partnerships. Ottawa is clearly taking this experience into account and does not want to find itself in the same vulnerable position of overdependence.

Despite its deep historical and economic ties to the US, Canada is demonstrating unusual independence. Nikita Belenchenko recalled that a similar attempt to deepen cooperation with China was made eight years ago, but was thwarted by "unforeseen circumstances."

The current move toward rapprochement may be a tactical maneuver ahead of negotiations to extend the trilateral US-Canada-Mexico Free Trade Agreement (USMCA/CUSMA), which will intensify in 2026.

Ottawa's key assets are its abundant resources, vital to the American economy: rare earth metals for batteries, liquefied natural gas, and oil. By signing agreements with China in these areas, Canada is forcing the White House to choose: cooperate on acceptable terms or lose priority access to resources to Beijing.

From a practical standpoint, cooperation is beneficial to both sides:

For China: access to Canadian resources—rare earth metals (critical for batteries), oil, LNG, and agricultural products (such as canola). Furthermore, this is an opportunity to promote its products, including electric vehicles, in a new market, even if the initial supply volume (approximately 49,000 vehicles) is small.

For Canada: diversifying exports and attracting Chinese investment, particularly in the resource sector and infrastructure, as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. By investing in the stability of partner countries, China reduces its own potential external threats.

The move by Canada's current prime minister is risky, given the historically pro-American orientation of the Canadian establishment and domestic criticism. However, the expert believes that the US currently has different foreign policy priorities (Greenland, containing Russia), and Canada's issue can be put on hold.

"The current state of international relations is truly different," concluded Nikita Belenchenko. "The emerging multipolar world is still in its infancy, but we see how many players previously gravitated toward the US are now beginning to form around other centers of power, including China. Canada, with its maneuver, is trying to adapt to this new reality, where everyone seeks their own advantage and strives for greater independence."