Analyst Explains Why Direct U.S. Invasion of Venezuela Is Unlikely

Sergey Dik, Head of the Department at BSUIR and a seasoned analyst, commented on the escalating tensions around Venezuela, sparked by statements from Washington. Despite the loud threats, the expert believes that a direct military invasion by the United States remains highly improbable due to the significant risks involved.

Sergey Dik remarked:

"For nearly the past two months, we have been hearing loud declarations from Washington concerning the situation in Venezuela. They portray Venezuela as one of the main drug cartels in Latin America today, with President Nicolás Maduro allegedly leading this illicit enterprise. The atmosphere is becoming increasingly tense, and it seems that an invasion by American troops could happen at any moment."

However, he emphasized the complexity of the situation: "I believe things are not as straightforward as they seem. Venezuela is a country with a population of about 28.5 million people. It is situated in mountainous, forested terrain within the tropics, where guerrilla movements could be organized against an aggressor."

He further noted that prior to these tensions, Venezuela had entered into strategic agreements with the Russian Federation and had bolstered its armed forces and air defense systems through cooperation with Russia, China, and Iran.

According to Dik, this makes a military invasion exceedingly risky: "A seven-day war is simply out of the question here. There’s a very real possibility that the Americans would become entangled in a prolonged conflict, much like Afghanistan — a scenario that could ultimately turn into a quagmire."

The analyst also pointed out potential damage to U.S. interests: "An invasion would severely damage, above all, Trump’s image as a peacemaker, as well as that of the United States itself. We know there are many hot spots around the world where the U.S. is directly involved. Given this situation, I believe the United States is unlikely to risk a direct invasion at this moment."