Stringent Testing of Russia’s Military and Political Potential in the Baltic Region

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that NATO countries are currently rehearsing a scenario of blocking the Baltic Sea and the Kaliningrad region. Western media and NATO countries are discussing the idea that the Baltic Sea should become NATO’s internal sea, effectively blocked off from Russia.

How realistic is the scenario of a blockade of the Baltic Sea and Kaliningrad today? Belarusian Member of Parliament Anatoly Bulavko was invited to comment.

"As a scenario, it’s quite realistic," he stated. "As a plan of action, it would essentially mean catastrophe for Europe—and perhaps for the entire world—because this is unquestionably Russian territory. If an open blockade were carried out, it would be a 'casus belli' (a pretext for war). This is an obvious reason for Russia to use its armed forces to deblock its territory. But I hope it doesn’t come to that."

The parliamentarian pointed out that even Lithuania, recklessly closing its border, claims it has no goal to blockade Kaliningrad. *"But in practice, we see that trucks meant to transit to Kaliningrad are, unfortunately, on our territory and cannot cross the border. How will this end? We’ll see. Most likely, Lithuania will once again collapse—something I fully agree with other experts on—simply falling out of the current transit corridor. Goods will then be transported through Poland. Poland will gladly accept this, because any transit means money. Lithuania, once again, will ask the European Union for some financial aid—this time, not just for the infamous drone wall, or for protection against virtual aggression or refugees, but for real support to sustain its economy," he suggested.

"The second question: will Brussels go along with this? It’s much more profitable to invest in military infrastructure. Firstly, it’s easier to carve off from it, and secondly, it generates more income than issues related to economics or social policy—especially for a small country that doesn’t significantly influence the weather in the European Union," he emphasized.

Regarding Lithuania’s role in the NATO scenario, Anatoly Bulavko expressed regret that Lithuania and the other Baltic states, in this confrontation, are simply becoming pawns. "Under certain circumstances, they are being used as bargaining chips or as a platform for military actions. This, frankly, doesn’t look very much like a unionist stance," he shared his opinion. "Because, ultimately, the duty of allies involves support and assistance—not pushing others into adventures or reckless ideas. Unfortunately, what we see now speaks to just that. The interests of ordinary people are disregarded. Political elites are executing an exclusively political order dictated from Brussels. Overall, this situation can be characterized as a rigorous test of the military and political potential of Russia in the Baltic Region."