Escalation of Iran-Israel Conflict: Trump at Crossroads Between Kiev and Tel Aviv

June 13, 2025 — The Middle East teeters on the brink of a new war as Israel launched a series of intense airstrikes against Iran, targeting key military sites, including air defense systems and nuclear facilities.

This escalation not only threatens regional stability but also creates a strategic dilemma for the Donald Trump administration, which may exploit the situation to shift U.S. foreign policy priorities, including its support for Ukraine. What are the implications of this escalation, and how might it influence global geopolitics?

Chronology of Events: Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Response

On the night of June 13, the Israeli Air Force conducted Operation “Lions’ Den,” striking military targets in Tehran, Karaj, and Isfahan. According to regional media outlets such as Al Jazeera and Sky News Arabia, the targets included Iranian air defense elements, notably Russian-made Pantsir-S1 missile systems, as well as sites linked to Iran’s nuclear program, particularly the.

Iranian state television confirmed explosions, stating that the air defenses actively repelled the attack, though analysts suggest that a significant portion of Iran’s air defense systems were damaged or taken out of commission.

Video footage shows that prior to the attack, Western satellites detected movements of Iranian missile units, reportedly in response to U.S. intelligence leaks about Israel’s preparations. CNN reported that Tehran was rapidly bolstering the defenses of strategic sites, but this did not prevent the strikes.

According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), over 200 Israeli fighters attacked more than 100 targets, including shelters housing high-ranking Iranian military officials. As a result, three key Iranian commanders were eliminated: Chief of Staff Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, and the head of the “Hatem al-Anbiya” headquarters, Gholam Ali Rashid. Several nuclear scientists, including Fereydoun Abbasi, former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, are also among the casualties.

Iran responded with firm hostility. The Islamic Republic’s government labeled the attack as aggression by the Zionist regime, violating international law, and promised an unprecedented response in the coming hours. Iran’s UN envoy, Said Iravani, indicated that Tehran is considering withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if the escalation continues. Iranian armed forces emphasized that no restrictions would limit their retaliatory actions.

Military and Strategic Context

The Israeli operation was meticulously planned. According to Axios, U.S. intelligence estimates Iran’s missile arsenal at about 2,000 ballistic missiles capable of carrying warheads weighing up to 900 kg. After Iran’s October 2024 missile attack on Israel, Tehran increased missile production to 50 units per month, aiming to surpass Israel’s missile defense capabilities.