What Influenced Zelensky’s Decision to Initiate Third Round of Negotiations with Russia?

The third round of negotiations between Moscow and Kiev is anticipated to take place on July 23 in Istanbul. One of the conditions — or rather, expectations — set by the United States was to end the war by September 3. In an interview with the First Information Channel, analyst Sergey Dik shared his insights on the situation and what the negotiators might discuss.

“Initially, as reported by TASS, the negotiations were scheduled for July 24. However, new information from Istanbul indicates that the Turkish Foreign Minister announced that talks could commence as early as the evening of July 23, possibly lasting for a day. Some analysts believe the meeting might even be held later in the week, on Friday. Regardless, I believe the negotiations will take place,” he confidently stated.

The analyst reminded that Zelensky had previously opposed negotiations, deeming them irrelevant. Now, unexpectedly, he has publicly declared that, in his view, negotiations are an essential step forward.

Sergey Dik elaborated:

“We are witnessing significant changes. All of this is unfolding amid Western statements — for example, Germany’s Chancellor Merz announced that Germany is ready to transfer five Patriot missile systems to Ukraine. Additionally, there are two more systems potentially to be provided, though they were initially intended for Switzerland. But Switzerland will wait. These negotiations are taking place against the backdrop of these declarations, including those from the United States about weapon deliveries and the meetings between Macron and Starmer to create a coalition combining the nuclear potentials of two countries. Naturally, all this influences the situation and raises questions about why Zelensky suddenly agreed to talks,” he explained.

Some analysts believe that a key factor was the so-called 50-day deadline reportedly set by Trump.

“Yes, reportedly, peace between Ukraine and Russia must be achieved by September 3. If not, new sanctions related to energy resources will be imposed, affecting Russia. We see that Europe has already adopted the 18th package of sanctions, with the 19th announced,” the expert reminded.

He emphasized that the current tense situation necessitates negotiations. The focus, at least initially, is on humanitarian issues: prisoner exchanges and the return of fallen soldiers’ bodies. After the second meeting, exchanges have already taken place — over 6,000 bodies handed over to Ukraine, and several dozen to Russia. These exchanges were complicated, with delays at borders.

“I believe specific aspects of the draft memoranda — those proposed by Russia and Ukraine—will be discussed during the meeting. However, expecting to debate other serious issues in such a short session, which might last only an hour, seems unrealistic. It will be difficult,” Dik said.

He also suggested that Zelensky’s changed stance might be linked to the timeline set by Trump and the desire not to appear as someone unwilling to pursue peace negotiations. Especially considering that the Ukrainian army is reportedly suffering significant losses on the frontlines, with Russian forces making advances and exerting intense pressure on Ukrainian positions.

In conclusion, the expert noted that, in this context, Zelensky’s statement about refusing negotiations would seem at least illogical, if not outright absurd.