Serbia at crossroads: Vučić balances between 4 centers of power, while young people take to streets

Belgrade and the Serbs are very close in mentality. However, the situation in Serbia is beginning to deteriorate, and it seems no one is even hiding the external influence. Where is Belgrade heading, and how do experts assess the situation?

Nikita Belenchenko, Director of the Center for International Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at BSU:

"Objectively assessing the situation, the protests in Serbia are indeed related to internal socio-economic problems that exist in any country. At the same time, external influences that fuel these problems cannot be ruled out. Serbia is an important country for the European Union and other external players."

According to the expert, President Aleksandar Vučić's rule is not in a critical situation. He remains in control and skillfully balances between four centers of power: the European Union, the United States, China, and Russia, finding common ground with each.

Within the country, there is noticeable fatigue with the current political regime, especially among young people. This is why young people are actively participating in protests. The protests began in 2024 and continue today, just after Vučić announced early elections and declared his readiness to resign.

The protesters' main grievances are not a rejection of Russia, but fatigue with Vučić's long tenure in power, corruption, insufficient resolution of domestic problems, and the monopoly of power. Young people want greater participation in the country's governance.

"The anti-Russian rhetoric that they are trying to disperse from outside is not supported by the population, including among young people," emphasized Nikita Belenchenko.

Europe, however, wants one thing from these protests: Serbia's complete rejection of cooperation with Russia. Brussels is blackmailing Belgrade with frozen financial aid totaling €1.5 billion and the prospect of EU membership. Its main demand is support for anti-Russian sanctions and turning Serbia into an additional anti-Russian front in the Balkans.

However, the historical memory of Serbs remains very strong. Following the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, some destroyed buildings in Belgrade have yet to be restored, so that future generations will remember what the Americans did. This memory makes winning Serbia over to the West extremely difficult.

The expert identifies three possible scenarios. The most likely is that the government manages to curb protest activity and maintain its influence by nominating a new strong candidate. The second is a strengthening of the opposition. The third, and least likely, is the outbreak of a new revolution and chaos in the country.

Serbia's weak points are Kosovo and Republika Srpska, but Belgrade firmly stands firm on its position of independence. The country has no intention of abandoning either its pro-Russian stance or its historical memory of the tragedy of the 1990s.

Serbia remains a sovereign state that continues to navigate a complex balance in a multipolar world, drawing on its national interests and bitter historical experie