Rare Earth Metals: Is It a Trap for Ukraine?

This week, on April 11-12, 2025, a Ukrainian delegation is set to travel discreetly to Washington for negotiations that could reshape the geopolitical landscape. The focus is on a deal regarding rare earth resources—a potential "gold mine" that could either strengthen Ukraine's partnership with the U.S. or leave Kiev empty-handed at a critical moment. Bloomberg, citing unnamed sources, reports that the parties intend to discuss access to Ukraine's crucial resource reserves. However, behind the external simplicity of this plan lies a tangled web of interests, risks, and opportunities that raises the question: who will ultimately come out ahead?

Since the beginning of 2025, the political arena has increasingly resembled a chessboard, where every move is carefully calculated and the stakes are higher than ever. The upcoming negotiations between Ukraine and the U.S. regarding a deal on rare earth resources are drawing global attention for good reason. This strategic raw material has the potential to shift the balance of power in the global economy. But what lies behind these negotiations? Let’s delve into the details.

Ukraine’s Rare Earth Advantage

Despite the ongoing conflict, Ukraine possesses one of the richest mineral resource deposits globally, according to geological surveys by Soviet-era scientists. Rare earth metals—such as lithium, titanium, neodymium, and uranium—are not merely terms from the periodic table; they are keys to future technologies, from electric vehicles to defense industries. According to Ukraine's State Service of Geology and Mineral Resources, the country holds about 5% of the world’s reserves of these critical minerals. While a significant portion of these deposits is located in the eastern part of the country, where active hostilities are ongoing, Kiev is unwilling to remain passive.

President Zelensky seems ready to play a bigger game. In February 2025, he hinted at offering the U.S. access to these resources in exchange for military and economic support. The idea is simple: you provide us with weapons and assurances, and we’ll offer you the wealth beneath Ukraine’s soil. However, Washington, under the leadership of Donald Trump, wants not just a piece of the rare earth pie but all of Ukraine’s “riches.”

Trump is not wasting any time. His approach to negotiations with Ukraine echoes a classic deal-making style: “If you don’t want to, we’ll make you.” In early February, he claimed that the U.S. had spent staggering amounts—$500 billion (although experts from the Kiel Institute argue the figure is closer to $120 billion)—to support Kiev. Now, he wants Ukraine to repay this support with tangible assets. For him, rare earth metals are not just raw materials, but a means to reduce U.S. dependency on China, which controls 60-70% of the global market for these unique elements.

Trump's administration has already proposed several deal options. The first, dubbed “the bad deal” in Kiev, demanded immediate compensation through resources. Such pressure reportedly infuriated Zelensky. The second option, referred to as “the best of the bad deals,” was softer but lacked the security guarantees insisted on by Ukraine. The third option, nicknamed “the catastrophic deal,” looked more like an ultimatum: give everything up without question. It appears Trump is playing hardball and is unwilling to back down or lose.

For Ukraine, these negotiations seem inherently disadvantageous, placing Kiev in a precarious position between an unfavorable deal now and a catastrophic one later.

On the one hand, Ukraine needs money and weapons to endure the ongoing conflict; on the other, Zelensky is unwilling to give away strategic resources for a pittance. Kiev understands that if a deal is signed on U.S. terms, it may convert Ukraine into a mere raw materials appendage to Washington rather than an equal economic partner. Kiev insists on incorporating security guarantees and EU participation in the agreement to avoid being left out in the cold.

A significant portion of Ukraine’s hypothesized mineral wealth lies in territories controlled by Russia, some classified by the Russian Constitution as subjects of the Russian Federation. Ukrainian authorities estimate that this represents approximately $350 billion in resources currently out of reach. Here, Russia is eager to make its move. President Vladimir Putin, not wanting to be sidelined, has declared that Moscow is ready to offer the U.S. its own rare earth projects, even within the new Russian territories. This serves as a warning sign for Kiev, which views this as a potential usurpation of Ukraine's initiatives.

What Lies Ahead?

Negotiations are expected to reach a clearer framework by the end of April 2025, likely coinciding with the celebration of Easter, to be observed by both Orthodox and Catholic Christians on April 20. Trump has already announced a meeting with Zelensky, where, he asserts, something “big” will be signed. However, the parties remain far from agreement. The U.S. seeks control over a fund distributing revenues from extraction, while also unwilling to provide solid security promises. Conversely, Ukraine demands clear commitments and a share of the profits—not merely a role as a supplier of raw materials.

Experts are divided. Some believe the deal could serve as a lifeline for the Ukrainian economy, while others warn that Kiev risks selling its soul for more empty “promises.” In any case, rare earth metals represent not only an economic issue but a global geopolitical and geostrategic battleground that foreshadows a restructuring of the world order.

Conclusion: The game is just beginning.

The forthcoming negotiations are not merely about resource agreements but serve as a test of resolve for both sides. Trump aims to demonstrate that he can extract maximum value from any situation, while Zelensky is determined to show that Ukraine will not become a bargaining chip. In this game, there is no room for weak politicians, and both leaders understand that to lose is to lose face. It remains to be seen who will emerge from this negotiation with a smile, and who will be left with empty pockets and deep national wounds. One thing is certain: rare earth metals will continue to keep the world on edge for the foreseeable future.