A Window of Opportunity or a Trap? Will Armenia Really Be Allowed into the EU?

The parliamentary elections in Armenia, which took place on June 7, are being discussed far beyond the country's borders. Yerevan's sharp turn toward the European Union, its rejection of Eurasian integration, and its "New Armenia" strategy are the focus of international analysts.

Nikita Belenchenko, Director of the Center for International Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at BSU, spoke about why Nikol Pashinyan had to change course, the role of external players in Armenian politics, and whether the country's economy can withstand the ambitions of politicians.

Pashinyan's Strategy: From Miatsum to "New Armenia"

The foreign policy reorientation observed in Armenia today is not a spontaneous decision, but a new strategy for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, one he is forced to live and act within. For a long time, Armenia lived by a completely different ideology – miatsum, or unity with Nagorno-Karabakh. However, after the events of 2020 and 2023, it became clear that a new strategy was needed.

"The new strategy is called 'New Armenia' or 'New Life.' It is precisely this strategy that requires securing the majority of popular support. This is what led to the early parliamentary elections," the expert explained.

Director of the Center for International Studies, Faculty of International Relations, BSU

This is not so much a contest between candidates or election campaigns, but rather a contest over Armenia's foreign policy. At the same time, the majority of the population does not yet support the changes Pashinyan is announcing. Moreover, he is only making announcements; there are no concrete steps yet to implement them.

External Factor: Macron as Host

Particular attention was paid to the role of external players, particularly France. At the last meeting of the European Political Community in Yerevan, Emmanuel Macron acted like the host of the event, while Pashinyan appeared a modest guest.

"In part, he was the host of this party, because the creation of the European Political Community was his initiative, and he is forced to live within this initiative. Moreover, he understands perfectly well that it is this initiative that helps him stay afloat," noted Nikita Belenchenko.

Emmanuel Macron and Nikol Pashinyan

The influence of external forces is enormous: not so much France, but the entire European Union and the West as a whole. France is trying to take a leading position, lobbying for Armenia's interests at the EU level, and helping to implement legislative changes. Meanwhile, criticism of the election campaign and results from European observation missions has been minimal.

The US vs. the EU: Conflict of Interest

A possible analogy was discussed with the situation in Hungary, where the visit of a US representative (J.D. Vance) and support for Viktor Orbán failed to help him win the election. However, as the expert emphasized, it was not Vance who visited Armenia, but Marco Rubio, who concluded completely different agreements.

"The main strategy of the United States is not political support for Armenia, but economic preferences and the prospect of obtaining them over at least the next 5-10 years. The key agreement signed during a 40-minute visit to Armenia is the rare earth metals agreement. Armenia sells its reserves or provides them to the United States, and the US receives the right to develop them," the analyst explained.

At the same time, the US does not agree with the European Union's policy on Armenia; there is a certain conflict of interest here, which does not benefit the Armenian population. In both Hungary and Armenia, society does not agree with the imposition of a political course, which automatically leads to rejection. This partly explains the decline in support for the ruling party from the previous 80% to barely 50%.

A Window of Opportunity for EU Accession: Illusion or Reality?

The question of whether a window of opportunity to join the European Union is open today for Yerevan was discussed, given that Brussels is seriously discussing expansion by 10-15 new members.

"There is always an opportunity, but it is unlikely that this opportunity will mean joining the European Union. It is quite possible that this new promise will be that of associate member, candidate country, or some new status, such as partner," Nikita Belenchenko shared his opinion.

The main condition is the rejection of Russian support and a change in policy toward Moscow. Serbia, Moldova, and Georgia have already encountered this: if these countries implement reforms that are unfavorable to the EU, their accession is automatically postponed by 5-10 years. Armenia will face the same.

Furthermore, there are internal factors: corruption, the need for legislative changes, and adapting food and economic standards to EU requirements (which is practically impossible). Furthermore, Armenian product supplies to the EU must be adapted to the EAEU's supply chains, which will be extremely difficult to achieve.