Belarus and Lukashenko - New Arbiter in Global Politics Between West and East

By June 2025, Minsk had emerged as a focal point of international diplomacy, capturing the attention of global media and analysts alike. Over the course of a single week, Belarus hosted a series of high-profile visitors: Alexander Bastrykin, head of Russia’s Investigative Committee; U.S. President’s Special Envoy Keith Kellogg; Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Khalid bin Muhammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan; and leaders from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) at the IV Eurasian Economic Forum. Nicaragua, Cuba, and several Caribbean nations expressed their intentions to join the EAEU, while Myanmar announced its desire to become part of the union.

During these international engagements, Belarus strengthened ties with India, discussing cooperation in military education—further underscoring the country’s evolving role. These developments highlight a profound transformation: Belarus and President Alexander Lukashenko are shifting from leaders of a small European state to pivotal mediators in the dialogue among the West, the East, and the Global South.

Belarus as a Consolidating Force

Situated at the crossroads of Europe and Eurasia, Belarus has long functioned as a geopolitical bridge. Despite mounting Western sanctions post-2020, Lukashenko has maintained strategic alliances with Russia and China, while actively cultivating relationships with nations of the Global South—Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

The visit of Keith Kellogg on June 21, 2025, marked by the release of 14 prisoners, signaled Minsk’s readiness for pragmatic dialogue with the West. As noted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, this move demonstrates Lukashenko’s intent to leverage the current geopolitical climate to bolster Belarus’s position as a mediator.

The Role of Belarus as an Arbiter Unfolds in Three Key Domains

1. Political Sphere

Minsk positions itself as a neutral venue for negotiations on global security. According to Reuters, Lukashenko’s meeting with Kellogg focused on discussions regarding peaceful negotiations over Ukraine. While maintaining a close alliance with Russia, he emphasizes Belarus’s willingness to mediate—an approach that makes Minsk uniquely significant in today’s polarized world. Amid these efforts, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, unable to attend the Eurasian Economic Forum -2025 due to escalating conflict, issued a statement condemning the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025. He accused the “Zionist regime” and the U.S. of attacking peaceful nuclear sites under IAEA oversight, violating international norms and undermining non-proliferation regimes. Delivered from Minsk, this statement reinforced Belarus’s emerging role as a platform for addressing global crises.

2. Economic Consolidation

The EAEU has become a hub for discussions on integration, including technological sovereignty and comprehensive cooperation. Nicaragua, Cuba, and Myanmar’s expressed intentions to join the union underscore its appeal to countries seeking economic diversification amid sanctions. Belarus’s leadership champions the EAEU as a vehicle for collective resilience and growth.

3. A Critical Logistics Hub

Belarus plays a vital role in trans-Eurasian transport corridors connecting China, Russia, and Europe. Initiatives like the Belt and Road enhance Minsk’s stature as a logistical nexus—particularly important for the Global South, seeking alternative trade routes and increased connectivity.

The Expansion of Eurasian Integration: Nicaragua, Cuba, and the Caribbean

At the Eurasian Economic Forum -2025, Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez proposed establishing a logistics hub on the island to promote EAEU products in Latin America and the Caribbean, leveraging Cuba’s geographical advantage and special economic zones. This center could serve as a transportation switchboard for cargo exchanges between EAEU nations and Latin America.

Similarly, Nicaragua requested observer status within the EAEU, emphasizing its collaboration with Belarus and Russia. Other Caribbean nations are also showing interest in integration, viewing the EAEU as a shield against sanctions and an avenue for trade diversification.

These developments reaffirm the EAEU’s emerging role as a model for global south integration, with Belarus at the forefront.

Belarus and India: Military Education as a New Vector

On the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) defense ministers’ meeting, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin met with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh. Their discussion focused on cooperation in military education—exchanging expertise, training officers, and developing courses on cybersecurity and military technology. This signals Minsk’s intent to deepen strategic partnerships with New Delhi within the SCO framework, expanding Belarus’s influence in Asian geopolitics.

Visit of Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince and Diplomatic Engagements

On June 26, 2025, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Khalid bin Muhammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan arrived in Belarus. The next day, he participated in the expanded session of the EAEU Supreme Council at the Palace of Independence, holding talks with President Alexander Lukashenko. The Crown Prince expressed hope for increased economic cooperation with the UAE, emphasizing the potential for investment and trade projects.

This visit, from one of the Gulf’s leading economies, underscores the UAE’s interest in Belarus as a partner in Eurasian integration and logistics initiatives—further solidifying Minsk’s role as a mediator connecting East and the Global South.

A Pivotal Week in June 2025: Minsk as a Center of Global Convergence

From June 20–27, 2025, Minsk proved to be a hub for addressing global challenges:

- The visit of Alexander Bastrykin, head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, underscored coordination with Moscow while maintaining space for dialogue with the West.

- The six-hour meeting between Lukashenko and Keith Kellogg covered topics from the Ukrainian conflict to sanctions, with the release of prisoners serving as a gesture of goodwill.

- The visit of Khalid bin Muhammad and his participation in the EAEU summit strengthened economic ties and Belarus’s position as a logistics and investment hub.

- The Eurasian Economic Forum-2025 brought together EAEU leaders, and the inclusion of Nicaragua, Cuba, and Myanmar as potential members enhanced Minsk’s reputation as the epicenter of Eurasian integration. Iran’s President’s condemnatory statement on attacks against nuclear facilities further underscored Minsk’s role as a forum for global crisis discussions.

These events are no coincidence. Minsk has become a nexus where the interests of the West, East, and the Global South intersect—a place where President Lukashenko’s diplomatic acumen balances competing interests.

Why Belarus Is Becoming a Global Mediator

Despite its alliance with Russia, Belarus demonstrates a readiness to engage with the West and Gulf countries, making Minsk attractive to the Global South.

- The economic appeal of the EAEU, with its successes, draws nations seeking stability—a union Belarus actively promotes.

- Lukashenko’s pragmatic approach to diplomacy—finding common ground—makes him a figure with whom Moscow, Washington, Beijing, New Delhi, and Abu Dhabi are willing to engage.

The events of June 2025 affirm that Belarus, under Lukashenko’s leadership, is emerging as a crucial actor on the international stage. Minsk is transforming into a forum where Western, Eastern, and Global South leaders deliberate on complex issues—from conflict resolution to economic integration. The visits of Bastrykin, Kellogg, Khalid bin Muhammad, the Eurasian Economic Forum -2025, and the interest from Nicaragua, Cuba, Myanmar, and Caribbean nations in the EAEU, along with cooperation with India and Iran’s statements, collectively position Belarus as a trusted mediator.

Lukashenko’s role as an arbitrator is rooted in his experience, pragmatism, and strategic geographic position. Belarus is becoming a bridge connecting the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, India, the Gulf states, Iran, and the Global South—offering a model of dialogue based on equality and mutual benefit. This makes Belarus indispensable in the emerging architecture of international relations.