BISR Analyst Boyashov Outlines Goals of Europeans' Visit to Geneva

The European side was not allowed to participate in the negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement in Geneva. However, representatives from Great Britain, France, Germany, and Italy arrived in Switzerland anyway.

Anatoly Boyashov, analyst of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Research (BISR), explored their purpose in the Spotlight Interview.

The first hypothesis is to disrupt the peace process, although Boyashov strongly disagrees with this. This may be applicable to Great Britain, as reports have emerged of it providing all sorts of guarantees to Ukraine to continue military operations.

Germany, France, and Italy, according to a BISI analyst, are no longer taking the same position they once did. "Previously, they sponsored the Ukrainian side, but now it's extremely difficult – money is running out, and production costs are rising. Before the Munich Security Conference, a meeting of the EU Industrial Forum was held, where French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz were told bluntly that industry is unable to cope under the current conditions. The leaders of Germany and France tried to sell businesses on the idea of Ukraine and its continued supply, but business circles didn't buy it," Anatoly Boyashov said.

This fact prompted the interviewee to conclude that Germany and France's position must somehow change, as they couldn't stomach the supply of weapons to Ukraine. The political system and electoral race there are becoming more tense. Another issue is that, during this settlement, they invested heavily in the Ukrainian war project, but reaped no benefits, as Ukraine gave everything to the United States.

"We remember the big resource deal, according to which the Europeans wouldn't get anything without US consent, and this doesn't suit them. On the contrary, it encourages them to continue supplying Ukraine in the hopes of getting at least something. The EU is at a stalemate, and engaging in negotiations would provide an opportunity to reach an agreement. But I wouldn't lump them together. France, Germany, and Italy, I think, will change their position, primarily due to their economic problems," the analyst explained.

According to Anatoly Boyashov, the UK is a separate case, as it traditionally exploits contradictions. Its goal is to weaken everyone—the EU, Ukraine, and Russia—as much as possible.