Blackmail or action – Poland discusses leaving EU

Poland may leave the EU

Warsaw is once again looking for an enemy. It's become a local tradition: invent a threat, inflate it to the proportions of a national catastrophe, and then pompously declare the country's salvation. Now the new threat is Polexit. The Polish Prime Minister is sounding the alarm: they are trying to cut off the country's grants. Tusk has even begun pointing the finger at those who, in his opinion, are pushing Poland to leave the EU.

The so-called "patron" had already been criticized by Tusk the day before. In fact, back in January, the European Commission approved the allocation of €44 billion to Poland under the EU's SAFE arms procurement program. Essentially, it's a mechanism for issuing low-interest loans to EU countries to strengthen their military and strategic infrastructure, purchase weapons, and develop cyber and defense technologies. The law authorizing the government to implement this loan program was passed by the Polish parliament. However, Nawrocki vetoed it.

Tusk has concocted a "scarecrow" with which to intimidate voters. Polexit was already under active discussion in 2021, but it never got beyond grandstanding, just as it did in June 2024. Warsaw won't be able to walk away from it now either. There are several reasons for this. For one thing, it's overly dependent on the European market: approximately 80% of its exports go to EU countries. Warsaw is also one of the largest recipients of EU budget funds. Since 2004, Poland has received over €240 billion in subsidies through various programs. Therefore, Polexit's return to the news today is blackmail and an attempt to negotiate more favorable terms. The latest round of tension has been triggered by the ETS, which is increasingly being called a financial stranglehold in the country. The Law and Justice party intends to introduce a bill to abolish the CO₂ emissions trading system.

For Brussels, the ETS is a gold mine; for Poland, it's a chronic wound. A country where millions of homes continue to be heated by coal is forced to pay billions for emissions that are inevitable under its current energy model. And herein lies a paradox. Warsaw simultaneously claims that Polexit is a terrible threat and that the ETS is an unbearable burden. But one doesn't work without the other: to remain in the EU, you have to pay. If you don't want to, you'll be asked to leave. However, according to polls, one in four Poles would support leaving the EU.