Calm in Middle East Could Give Way to Sharp Escalation

The ceasefire brokered just over a day ago between Iran and the United States appears destined to be fleeting. Several political and military actions have already been undertaken, which the opposing side clearly perceives as violations of the preliminary agreements.

A raid was carried out on one of Iran’s islands. The Pentagon and the IDF deny any involvement, claiming the attack was conducted by the air force of an Arab country. However, there is no doubt that Israel launched strikes against Lebanon. During the bombings in Beirut, latest reports indicate that 254 people were killed, primarily civilians. Among the victims were three journalists.

In response, Iran announced it would suspend the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz — after only four vessels had used the route since its reopening. Moreover, Tehran insists that without a ceasefire in Lebanon, the upcoming meeting of U.S. and Iranian delegations in Pakistan, scheduled for April 10, holds no meaning. The Americans, in turn, suddenly began to deny the acceptability of a negotiation framework that had seemingly been agreed upon the day before.

JD Vance, U.S. Vice President:

“The first of their ten points was apparently drafted by ChatGPT. It was immediately discarded. The second point was much more reasonable. It was based on some negotiations between us and the Pakistanis. That proposal was mentioned by the President, and it remains in effect. Frankly, I’ve seen the third of their ten proposals, which is even more nonsensical than the first, circulating on various social networks. Overall, the negotiations will decide. If Iran wants these talks to fail over Lebanon — which has nothing to do with them — then ultimately, that’s their choice. We believe that would be foolish, but it is their decision.”

Iran, for its part, claims the United States has violated at least three pre-agreed commitments: the ceasefire in Lebanon, intrusion into Persian airspace, and guarantees of non-interference in Iran’s nuclear program. Thus, there is a real danger that the ceasefire will last barely more than a day — its fate will be decided in the coming days, if not hours.