Continuation of Iran-Israel Conflict Now Depends on US Decision

The Iran-Israel conflict, which has been rapidly escalating in recent days, has now reached a state of tactical balance. Experts suggest that neither side currently possesses the resources to continue the conflict with its previous intensity.

Moreover, neither side is capable of achieving a decisive victory—at least without outside intervention. The White House likely understands that engaging in war is easier than escaping it afterward. Such involvement could lead to regional and global catastrophe—at the very least economic, and possibly military as well.

The first five days of the conflict demonstrated that a war fought over a distance of 2,000 km is feasible, but winning it almost certainly is not. Airstrikes and mutual rocket attacks have already resulted in visible and tragic humanitarian consequences. Iran has suffered 585 deaths and around 1,500 injuries. Israel’s casualties are also significant—24 killed and over 800 wounded.

Yet, continuing the conflict in its current form is utterly pointless: both sides are capable of inflicting serious damage, but forcing the opponent to surrender is unlikely. Despite the obvious sympathy of major global media outlets for Israel, the impression that Tehran is prepared to admit defeat is false.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei:

"Demanding the capitulation of the Iranian people is unreasonable. Wise individuals, knowledgeable about the region, Iranian history, and its people, would never suggest such a thing. To whom should we surrender? Iran is not a country that yields."

Last night, the US National Security Council convened, but no statements emerged from the meeting. President Trump posted several messages on social media, urging Iran to surrender, but these were somewhat frivolous, making them seem more like jokes.

American media reports suggest that a decision on military support for Israel could be made in Washington within the next day or two, but such a choice is controversial within the White House. Trump is keeping the suspense. He recently stated that next week could be decisive, but the current one might be, too. Overall, Trump still does not know whether the US will strike Iran or not.

Undoubtedly, the United States is providing covert assistance to its main ally—support that is not openly advertised and is often limited to intelligence sharing. Senator Ted Cruz confirmed this in an interview with Tucker Carlson, saying: "Israel is striking, and we are supporting them."

The West has unequivocally supported Israel, but only in words—for instance, the G7 summit’s statements on the Middle East conflict are filled with rhetoric but lack concrete commitments. The only notable exception was perhaps a stern warning addressed to Tehran, orchestrated by President Macron.

Macron expressed a more definite stance: France and the West generally support Tel Aviv, but they are clearly opposed to the outright defeat of Persia, as such a development would dramatically shift the global geopolitical balance.

French President Emmanuel Macron:

"We do not want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles. But I believe that the greatest mistake today would be to seek regime change in Iran through military means, as this would lead to chaos."

Among influential countries outside the G7, pro-Israeli sentiments are even weaker. China has condemned the attack on Iran, as has Russia. Turkey’s leader, a de facto regional superpower, was no less resolute:

"For Iran, it is entirely natural and lawful to defend itself against state terrorism and banditry by Israel," said President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Israel reports that it has about nine days’ worth of targets remaining for strikes. Already, the attacks are shifting from military facilities to police and civilian infrastructure. Israelis evidently hope that unrest will erupt in Iran—uncontrollable due to disorganized security forces.

The magnitude of possible future strikes is limited: Israel mostly operates from aircraft that must undertake long flights, making sustained attacks difficult. Eastern Iran, where many missile launchers are located, remains largely inaccessible. Iran has already launched about 400 ballistic missiles, some of which have been destroyed by the enemy. Further massive barrages are unlikely due to depleted missile stocks. Iran has also indicated a willingness to negotiate over its nuclear program, suggesting that the reasons for war are diminishing.

Now, everything hinges on the decision of the United States. Without American involvement, the conflict is likely to quickly fade. But if Washington intervenes, the flames of war could be ignited as if poured with kerosene. Currently, the conflict is unpopular in the US—only about 16% of Americans support it.

Arab nations and Muslims worldwide might unite against the US and Israel. Iran’s announced blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could have unpredictable consequences for the fragile balance of the global economy. The entire world is anxiously awaiting the White House’s decision.