Provocation or Attack? Political Analyst Comments on Incident with Downed Drone in Minsk

In the early hours of July 29, a drone suppressed by electronic warfare (EW) systems was discovered on Matusevicha Street in Minsk. Based on the drone’s square-shaped wings and engine—likely a UJ-22 or FP-1—speculations about its origin have arisen.

Since the drone was intercepted exactly over the western part of Minsk, it is probable that it was coming from Lithuanian territory along the shortest route to its target. It is highly unlikely that it was routed around the capital, for example, from the Chernigov Region of Ukraine. One possible scenario is that it was launched from Russian or Belarusian territory, but this is considered less probable, according to political analyst Andrey Lazutkin, as reported by "Minskaya Pravda."

The analyst presents two main hypotheses. The first suggests a provocation by Lithuania related to Western military exercises. Recent statements by Lithuanian authorities about allegedly launched Belarusian drones over their territory could be an attempt to justify such an action. However, using a drone with a combat payload makes such provocation risky and politically disadvantageous for Lithuania, given the potential for casualties.