In Poland, pre-election campaign turns into scandalous show

On May 18, Europe will face a pivotal day — a significant Election Day. More precisely, Poland and Romania will choose their presidents, while Portugal votes for its parliament. In these countries, candidates from ruling parties are engaged in fierce battles with representatives of radical political movements. Let us focus on Poland, where the electoral race has descended into a scandalous theater. The key question remains — will the Polish people make the choice, or will an external, influential patron determine the outcome?

Tomorrow, Polish citizens will head to the polls to select their new president, as Andrzej Duda’s term expires in August. Legally, he cannot run for a third term. However, few are genuinely interested in that prospect. The country faces numerous pressing issues: rising national debt and budget deficits, declining exports and investment volumes, shrinking profits for businesses, and soaring prices for food and utilities. These problems give candidates ample material for vehement rhetoric and populist promises.

Krzysztof Stanowski, a presidential candidate in Poland, remarked:

“The Polish Prime Minister recently called the U.S. president an agent of Russia. The foreign minister branded him a proto-fascist. The future ambassador is described as an unbalanced politician. When Yaroslav Kaczyński raised concerns in 2010 about Russia’s renewed imperial ambitions, he worried whether Kaczyński had taken the ‘right pills.’ Now, these individuals are supposed to be diplomacy experts. They lecture us on diplomacy while traveling to Kiev in second-class carriages.”

Thirteen candidates are competing in the first round, and it is unlikely that anyone will secure the necessary 50% of votes for outright victory. The frontrunners are well known. The main contest is between Rafał Trzaskowski from the ruling Civic Platform and Ryszard Terlecki from the opposition Law and Justice party.

Rafał Trzaskowski, candidate from the Civic Platform:

“We need to allocate at least five percent of GDP to defense. We must spend more on our security, strengthen our eastern border, and invest in Polish defense industries.”

Indeed, the state of border security and the situation with illegal migration are in a dire state. The notorious eastern fence is ineffective, mainly because the majority of migrants arrive from Germany. The country has become entangled in a misguided obsession with the perceived Russian threat.

Karol Nawarocki, a Law and Justice candidate:

“If Rafał Trzaskowski wins, the Poland we know will simply disappear. It will be flooded with illegal immigrants. Polish farmers and forests will be under pressure from green ideology. Meanwhile, Polish soldiers will be sent to Ukraine, despite the fact that Ukraine has been treated unfairly, even though we have supported them extensively over recent years.”

Such rhetoric is not accidental. Polish society is deeply fatigued by the Ukrainian issue and the country's over-militarization. Many indicators suggest that the next Polish president could be a critic of Ukraine. Trzaskowski advocates transforming Ukraine into a buffer zone and limiting aid to refugees, while Nawarocki opposes sending Polish troops to Ukraine and disagrees with Ukraine’s NATO and EU membership.

Another notable contender, third in the ratings, is Sławomir Mentzen, representing the nationalist and eurosceptic coalition “Confederation.” He calls for revising benefits for Ukrainian refugees — although these are just words.

Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Polish Institute of Public Relations, comments:

“Poland is now one of the key players in the EU, especially in mobilizing EU countries and partners to strengthen Ukraine’s position against Russia. Therefore, if the elections are mishandled from the perspective of the ruling coalition, it will have consequences for the entire European policy towards Russia.”

Poland stands out among EU members mainly for its fervent reliance on Brussels subsidies. Moreover, Warsaw considers itself a U.S. outpost in Europe and aspires, if not to the first role, then at least to the second tier in the European hierarchy. Yet, this ambition is often pursued at the expense of others. The scandalous political campaign is backed by a foreign sponsor: the Polish authorities have been stirred by videos supporting candidate Trzaskowski, who promotes a Western liberal course. These advertisements are linked to an organization associated with the “Democracy Action” fund, which is financed by the U.S. Democratic Party.

The Polish people face new challenges ahead — notably, a rise in food prices due to recent frosts. Politically, the landscape is clear: if the current trend continues, the second round will likely see the victory of a candidate from Tusk’s party, placing control of the entire country’s political system in the hands of the current establishment. Conversely, a victory for a candidate from the opposition Law and Justice could lead to a genuine crisis, as tensions between the presidential palace and the cabinet of ministers escalate.