Middle East onverge of full-scale conflict. Will there be a disaster and who's to decide?

In the past week, the events in the Middle East have sprung up like someone spurring the nag of history. Developments in the region, while remaining highly dramatic, have reached a point of unpredictability.

There is no certainty in the Middle East story, and it is not foreseeable: on the one hand, it could de-escalate, on the other hand, it could slip permanently into the abyss of disaster at any moment. And, by the way, it can develop into a global one.

More countries are embroiled in the conflict. Israel is no longer ironing out only Gaza, but also Lebanon making plans about Iran. The states kind of keep their subjects on a leash, only they keep rushing around without regard for the master. Or maybe this very owner just turns a blind eye to such antics...

By far the most striking event of the week was the massive Iranian missile launch into Israel. As always, everyone tries to squeeze the truth into a narrow corset of military censorship and pull the belt of military propaganda, so it seems that everything happened in front of the widest public, but the perception of what happened remains rather vague and unreliable. They report that the missiles amounted to 181 pieces, although at first they reported 250, 400, even 500. The victim, according to the Israeli side, was one - the missile killed an unfortunate Arab passer-by in Jericho.

According to the Israeli side, 2 people were slightly wounded, a couple of buildings in Tel Aviv were slightly damaged, and there were no military casualties at all - except that some of the rubbish on the bases was burned. The Iranians say otherwise: 20 F-35 fighter jets worth $1.5 billion or $2 billion were destroyed at the airfield, oil platforms in the Mediterranean were hit, and the Nevatim and Tel Nof military bases were hit. In Tel Aviv, the Mossad intelligence building was hit, but the Israeli air defense was apparently busy doing something of their own, more important than repelling the Iranian attack.

The Iron Dome, of which the Israelis are very proud, was already renamed into iron strainer - quite unfairly, by the way: the Patriot and David's Sling systems are responsible for ballistic missiles - and the Iron Dome is precisely designed to destroy the homemade shells that the Palestinians build from pieces of water pipes. Which, by the way, does not displace the following fact: both the Sling and the Patriots were practically useless - there were many arrivals and no visible interference with Iranian missiles.

One suspects that the Iranian missile attack was less of a punitive strike than a threatening demonstration. On several previous occasions, the Iranians have announced the inevitability of their harsh response, such as after the death in Tehran of a Hamas leader, after a pager attack in Lebanon, and finally after the assassination of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah. The delay in the retaliation strike in Tel Aviv began to be perceived as a weakness and a willingness on the part of the Persians to admit defeat. The missile salvo produced a momentary reconfiguration of roles in the confrontation - the Iranians showed strength and determination, the Israelis realized that the enemy was belligerent and ready for battle.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the spiritual leader of Iran:

"We must create a unified defense belt to protect the independence of all Islamic countries, from Afghanistan to Yemen! The interests of defending Islam determine our destiny! The protection of the Lebanese and Gazans is a legitimate right that we have protected through the brilliant work of our armed forces."

The lack of destructive effect, by the way, may be intentional: Tehran has only shown that it can do unacceptable damage to the Jewish State and has offered to back down without forcing a serious counterstrike. And it seems that the Israelis understood the message - at first, they promised to respond to the missile attack in a way that would make the Middle East tremble, then slightly reduced the heat and threatened to strike only Persian nuclear facilities. Finally, it was recalled that they themselves have nuclear facilities, and air defense, meanwhile, is not particularly effective - in general, the showdown against the Persian non-peaceful atom was also abandoned. Amazingly, the missile launch seems to have knocked down a degree of tension - everyone suddenly realized they were on the verge of mutual annihilation. Even the Americans, who have tied the knot on most of the region’s contradictions, are sticking to their militant Israeli partners.

Joe Biden, President of the United States:

"There is a lot of discussion now about whether and how Iran should respond? That remains to be seen: we are in constant contact with the Israeli government!"

Of course, the catastrophic processes in the region have not yet been reversed, but there is a real chance: in the headquarters, in the situation rooms of governments, in the intelligence services, there is now a tense debate - how do we make sure that there is nothing left of them and we will have nothing for it? Fortunately, neither side seems to be able to solve the equation. Which does not, by the way, negate war and bloodshed.

The IDF has invaded Lebanon's border regions and continues to bombard targets in Beirut, Sidon, Tyre and other cities. The Israeli military has flooded the border regions, where the apple has nowhere to fall because of armored vehicles. Every day, more Hezbollah leaders are reported dead: to get another one, the Israelis are wiping out homes with all their inhabitants, or even entire neighbourhoods - both in Lebanon and Syria. Since the conflict began, official Beirut estimates that more than 2,000 people have died. While hunting down Hezbollah leader Nasrallah destroyed a residential compound with 80 tons of bombs, in an attempt to assassinate his successor, the Israelis literally wiped out several Beirut neighbourhoods along with their inhabitants.

Meanwhile, Israel's Lebanese operation is neither dashing nor lightning like. Even military censorship cannot conceal the deaths of dozens of Israeli soldiers, with footage online documenting the removal of countless wounded by helicopter. Hezbollah's military commanders, like those of any army, prepared for the past war, but did so thoroughly: they do not have any explosive drones, but there are huge quantities of grenade launchers and mortars in storage - so many that even smart Israeli weapons do not provide overwhelming superiority to the invading forces. For the life of an IDF soldier, Arabs pay with the lives of hundreds of Hamas and a dozen Hezbollah fighters - but this proportion of Israelis is not satisfactory because it completely rules out victory. First and foremost, because of the superiority of the Arabs in numbers - killing civilians and non-peaceful without counting - the Israelis themselves create an uninterrupted pipeline of recruits to enemy radical paramilitary organizations. The situation is now frozen at breaking point - it could move in either the escalation or the opposite direction.

Abbas Araghchi, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Iran:

"If the Zionist statehood attacks us, the retaliation will be even more brutal than the last one! The response will be proportionate and carefully calculated. We didn't start the conflict - we only responded to the attacks on Iranian lands, on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, responded to the attack on Iranian interests!"

It must be understood that the current war was caused by Israel’s purely domestic political problems: Netanyahu’s government was on the verge of resigning and the prime minister was facing a series of criminal cases. Last year's attack triggered a severe blow many times greater than the force on the Palestinian territories: revenge was satisfied and the release of the hostages could be negotiated without wiping Gaza off the map. In fact, the war lasts only because ending it threatens the Israeli government with a thousand domestic political problems.

Binyamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel:

"Iran has made a big mistake and will pay for it! Iran underestimates our determination to defend ourselves and seek revenge against our enemies! Whoever attacked us, we'll attack them! It's about Judea and Samaria, it's about Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria! And Iran, too: we will fight the axis of evil everywhere!"

However, the country is mired in conflict, and the later it ends, the more difficult it will be for Israel to return to peace. The country's economy is in a pre-heart attack state - there are no cheap workers because the Palestinians have left, no tourists, no investors, no freight transit. People and money are flowing abroad - both love silence. But the economy of war is like a bicycle - it's only sustainable as long as it's moving. Now, after the Iranian missile salvos, it is up to Israel to decide whether or not to make a disaster.