"Rats fleeing the ship" – Expert Belenchenko on why Polish coalition is cracking apart

Poland is facing a serious political crisis: Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition is experiencing a split. The "Poland 2050" party has essentially disintegrated, with 15 deputies leaving what was once a united force.

In the program "Current Interview," Nikita Belenchenko, director of the Center for International Studies at BSU’s Faculty of International Relations, explained how personalism is killing Polish politics and whether the White House influences the situation in Warsaw.

Belenchenko notes that the ongoing turmoil stems from internal political struggles that have existed since 2023 and intensified after Karol Nawrócki’s presidential victory in 2025.

He states that the deputies leaving the party had leadership ambitions. After failing to secure desired posts in internal party elections in January 2026, they accused the leadership of undemocratic and even authoritarian practices, which the political analyst finds somewhat amusing.

The expert predicts that this process won’t stop here — other coalition members, such as the Peasant Party, may follow. This is part of a larger confrontation between Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Karol Nawrócki, which is likely to escalate ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections.

What’s happening could be seen as politicians vying for advantages. Some deputies are considering switching from Tusk’s coalition to the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which could drastically change the parliamentary landscape and even lead to a change in prime minister.

Belenchenko explains the root of such instability:

"Poland 2050 was created around a single leader, without a deep ideological foundation. It was mainly for winning one person’s victory in the parliamentary elections."

He points out that Polish politics is highly person-centered: when a leader takes a step aside, the entire structure begins to crumble. The same applies to PiS, where Jarosław Kaczyński remains a central figure. If he disappears, significant changes could follow.

According to Belenchenko, deputies from both parties possess leadership ambitions and may seek to participate in parliamentary or presidential elections for ministerial positions.

They also see their ratings declining — losing 3-5%, now hovering at 2-3%, risking their parliamentary seats. Hence, they are "rats fleeing the ship," trying to align with those who can secure their political future.

Despite this, they often adopt centrist rhetoric, which is currently most advantageous in Poland, allowing them to navigate between right and left. Even Nawrócki himself meets with various political forces to gauge future support.

The Polish Sejm has long been a place of scandals—drunken deputies and other incidents occur regularly. But more important is understanding how the global agenda and shifts in focus toward national conservatism or radical liberalism influence the parliament.

Belenchenko emphasizes that now, the support in the Polish parliament mainly comes from either Brussels or Washington.

This reflects Poland’s foreign policy toward Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine — which are now the most critical issues.

The connection between the US White House and the situation in the Polish Sejm is clear.

Tusk leans toward Brussels and American Democrats, while Nawrócki and PiS are pro-Republican. Former President Trump called Nawrócki "his man" in Poland, met with him, and expressed trust. Currently, the White House regards Warsaw with particular favor because of the pro-American president.

Belenchenko notes that the US aims to maintain influence within the EU, which causes divisions within the bloc, especially with upcoming elections in Hungary and the need to preserve sway in Poland and Slovakia.

However, internal US issues, such as the growing rift between Republicans and Democrats, complicate matters. Even Trump’s allies are urging moderation, warning that continued aggressive foreign policies might threaten future impeachment.

Despite disputes in the Sejm, external policies remain relatively consistent. The differences mainly concern the level of support for Ukraine, with Poland still supporting Kyiv, but debate persists over how much and how it’s communicated to voters.

The overarching question is Poland’s sovereignty.

Politicians seem to discuss everything except the interests of ordinary citizens, who are struggling amid an energy crisis.

Belenchenko concludes that Poland’s main goal is to preserve its sovereignty within the EU as a guard on the eastern border, promoting the idea of "securing Europe from Belarus or Russia."

However, internal problems, like EU loans, social spending, and tax hikes, are often pushed aside.