"This Fragile Truce" - Can the US and Iran Agree on Peace in Two Weeks?

The night of April 7-8, 2026, could have become a step toward a major escalation in the Middle East, fraught with a conflict of truly global proportions. This was averted literally at the last moment: American bombers that had taken off from British air bases returned to their bases, and Tehran and Washington announced a ceasefire and the imminent start of full-scale negotiations. A calm, albeit shaky, has settled over the Middle East: a bad peace is always better than a good war.

Just 24 hours ago, the course of events seemed catastrophically unpredictable. US President Donald Trump declared that a great civilization would soon perish in the Middle East, American bombers took to the skies, and thousands of Iranians formed human shields around power plants and bridges that threatened to destroy the United States. An hour before Washington's ultimatum expired, an hour before the bomb bays of roaring B-52s were to open over Iran, news arrived from Pakistan, where closed-door negotiations had been held: the war had stopped. 

It was announced that the peace agreement would be based on the settlement plan proposed by Tehran. It entails guarantees of non-aggression against Iran, compensation for damages, an end to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the withdrawal of American bases from the Middle East, and the lifting of all anti-Iranian sanctions, including secondary ones. Tehran also retains the right to continue its nuclear program.

On the other hand, Trump has already announced that the Persians will cease uranium enrichment and that all previously accumulated uranium will be removed from Iran. He also acknowledges that the 10 points proposed by Tehran are an excellent basis for a long-term peace – only the most trivial details remain to be agreed upon. Ultimately, although both the Americans and the Persians claim complete victory, the differences are too significant to suggest the ceasefire will last even the promised two weeks.

J.D. Vance, Vice President of the United States:

"First, the President's goal was to destroy the Iranian military, its ability to wage war. That goal, as the President said, has been achieved, and so he effectively gave the Iranians an ultimatum. He said, 'Open the straits, stop trying to hold the global economy hostage, and we will negotiate a ceasefire.' That's exactly the agreement we reached last night. The Iranians agreed to open the straits. The United States agreed to cease attacks, and not only the United States, but our allies agreed to cease attacks. It's a fragile ceasefire. There are people who clearly want to sit down and work with us to reach a good deal."

The talks will begin on April 10 in Islamabad. Delegations will be led by J.D. Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf.

Meanwhile, even hostilities have not yet ceased completely. After the ceasefire was announced, the American-Israeli coalition struck targets on the Iranian islands of Lavan and Sirri. The Persians responded with drone strikes against targets in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Israel, for its part, declared it would continue military operations in Lebanon. Hundreds of people, including civilians, were killed in IDF strikes in Beirut.

Experts believe that Tel Aviv is interested in reigniting the conflict. Israel views Iran as an existential threat – for the Jewish state, any outcome other than the defeat of the Persians means the fundamental causes of the conflict remain. Furthermore, Israel risks facing an acute domestic political crisis. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is already being accused of ending the war without regard for Israeli interests. The ceasefire truly looks as if the parties are taking a breather.

Now Iran will have the opportunity to heal its bleeding wounds. The Strait of Hormuz is opening, but tankers passing through will have to pay tribute to the Persians and possibly Oman—$1 for every barrel exported.