Ukraine and Poland: Who Needs Provocations and Why

Kiev is preparing a provocation. Bankovaya (the presidential administration) is deliberately sabotaging negotiations and escalating the situation in the region. A new spectacle threatens to have widespread consequences and involve NATO in the conflict.

Russian military intelligence reported preparations for a staged attack on Poland allegedly by disguised Belarusian and Russian soldiers. The scenario is allegedly crafted by a duet of Ukrainian and Polish intelligence services.

The situation is heating up everywhere. After Poland, drone activity is spreading across EU countries, with new reports of mysterious UFOs in the sky above paradise-like gardens almost daily.

The situation in Ukrainian trenches is critical; the Russian army is taking settlement after settlement; and Zelensky no longer receives billion-dollar sums from the American budget — Trump is not providing them.

A year ago, Bankovaya was tightly controlling uncontrolled cash flows. Former head of USAID Samantha Power admitted that Ukraine was receiving $1.5 billion in cash without reports (just from one agency). American offices have since closed. The EU, although increasing military budgets, has not become a gold mine for replacements. Therefore, a loud, motivating, resonant provocation is needed, which will lead the world on a very thin ice.

Russian external intelligence warned about preparations for a resonant provocation. Kiev plans to attempt to insert saboteurs into NATO member Poland. Disguised "soldiers"—terrorists dressed as Belarusian fighters within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the so-called Kalinovsky Regiment, and fighters from the "Freedom of Russia" Legion—are considered candidates for the main role in this provocation. They are currently subordinate to Ukraine’s main intelligence, receive salaries from there, and are fully controlled.

According to the scenario, terrorists will enter Polish territory and imitate an attack on critical infrastructure. The second act involves the capture of alleged Belarusian and Russian soldiers and their confessional footage, where terrorists will reveal that the military received orders from command.

Alexey Leonkov, military analyst for the magazine "Arsenal of the Fatherland" (Russia):

"Currently, some Eastern European countries, the Baltic states, and Poland are strengthening their borders. They have several projects: Estonia is digging anti-tank ditches, Latvia is installing a fence, and Poland has already built one. Some are proposing to flood the border to create impassable swamps — the most reliable protection. All these projects are costly, and some action must be taken to put them into production. Therefore, the operation is planned and staged under a foreign flag. They will somehow add uniforms similar to those in Belarusian and Russian armies, dress up the disguised personnel, carry out captures and seizures, and definitely find passports. There will be plans for sabotage activities, all detailed on paper."

It’s impossible to carry out such an operation without Polish knowledge. Russian external intelligence clarified that Kiev is developing the scenario of a Russian-Belarusian attack jointly with Polish intelligence.

Andrey Bogodel, deputy head of the faculty of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces at the Military Academy:

"First, one Ukraine alone is unlikely to undertake such actions; they require far-reaching plans. Second, if such preparations are underway or happen, it indicates a common scenario fitting into closed borders, espionage, wandering drones over Europe, and suspicious tankers in the Baltic and Northern Seas."

Such provocations create a suitable informational background, making it easier to make radical decisions. Recent drones wandering over Poland, prompting F-16 intercepts, are also part of the overall scenario, as is the Polish representative at the UN waving a photo of a destroyed Polish pensioner’s house with a Polish homemade firearm. The UN and related institutions are expected to generate international noise about an alleged attack by the Union State on NATO borders. Right now, after the Polish UFO reports, drone activity has seized Western countries.

Almost daily, new reports emerge from countries like Romania, Germany, Denmark—none bordering Russia—about alleged "attacks" by Russian UAVs. These UAVs are not detected, but the effect is created: if it’s posted online, it must have happened.

"I believe we will soon face significant provocations in Transnistria, Ust-Luga, and Kaliningrad. Belarus is simply in the epicenter of these events. The Belarusian position is key in ensuring the security of the Kaliningrad special region and the entire Eastern Baltic. We shouldn’t forget that the border with Ukraine stretches over 1,000 km," Andrey Bogodel noted.

Two notable statements came from the top Polish regime figures. Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the Russia-Ukraine conflict "his" — meaning Poland’s. President Karol Nawrocki declared that Poland refused to close the Baltic Sea to some "shadow fleet" of Russia at Zelensky’s demand. Interestingly, discussions about blocking the Baltic Sea to prevent Russia from accessing the global ocean are ongoing. Legally, it’s impossible, but what will the UN do if NATO demands it? The UN might go along and issue a convention, making all illegal actions lawful.

Currently, drones are being launched from the "shadow fleet." Russia is allegedly going all-in. The French even boarded an entire tanker in international waters. The tanker was huge, but the French boarding boat was tiny. The crew did not resist, but suspicion of involvement in the drone incident in Denmark was raised earlier. The ships detained by Estonia under the Belize flag found no drones, and the French did not find any either. Evidence and investigations are secondary; the primary focus is on the budget, which is rapidly expanding.

"How to explain to Europeans that these expenses are necessary? The best explanation is the Russian or Belarusian threat. If there is none, then they must invent one. If there are no saboteurs, they need to be dressed up, found, detained, and then claimed to be Russian or Belarusian saboteurs. If no drones, then they must be launched. If explosions are needed, they will even resort to that, just to save their own skins. I think soon spies and sabotage groups will run across Europe. All intelligence agencies will be hunting them. Meanwhile, the budgets for such hunts will grow exponentially," Alexey Leonkov shared.

Western media are in hysteria. They are fueling the narrative of an inevitable invasion. Denmark is preparing for an attack, collecting emergency kits. The news of Kiev's staged invasion, according to Russian intelligence, was presented by Polish media in a planned, typical manner. All of this is perfect visualization—a scenario that cannot be bettered.