Trump's Surgery: Can Chimerica Be Divided Without Fatal Outcomes for Both Countries?

While Europeans are playing high politics on their continent, the White House is shifting its focus to the Indo-Pacific region. China is openly being called a strategic threat that must be eliminated. The NATO Secretary General acknowledges the growing development gap and calls on the Alliance's members to accelerate weapons and equipment production.

Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General:

"When it comes to China as a whole, we must understand that by 2030 they will have 1,000 nuclear warheads. They currently have more warships than you do than the US. They have a shipbuilding industry that the US doesn't have. During World War II, when you had Liberty ships, you were producing one every day or every week at the end of the war. But today, you couldn't do that. That's why I'm always discussing with the Pentagon how to restart the shipbuilding industry. So let's be aware of what the Chinese are doing and not be naive and underestimate them."

Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General

Why do they need the weapons and ships Rutte mentions? It's clear they won't engage in a direct confrontation with China. In the region, they traditionally operate using proxy forces. Taiwan is being used as a battering ram against Beijing. The Chinese region is being pushed toward separatism and pumped with weapons. In addition, a coalition is being formed that will provide military and political assistance. This was stated by US Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby.

Elbridge Colby, US Under Secretary of Defense for Political-Military Affairs:

"Why is Taiwan important to Americans? First, it's preventing China from dominating Asia, which accounts for 50% of global GDP. If China dominated, our lives would suffer greatly. Taiwan is crucial to what I call the 'anti-hegemonic' coalition, which is essentially a coalition of countries including India, Japan, the Philippines, perhaps Vietnam to some extent, and so on. If we abandon Taiwan or lose because of Taiwan, countries in the region will have a rational incentive to restructure and adapt to Beijing."

Elbridge Colby, US Under Secretary of Defense for Political-Military Affairs

Why has China become a thorn in the side of American hegemony? It's not just that it has conquered all global markets and displaced American goods. Of course, that's important. However, the White House's main problem is that Beijing is offering its own vision of the future to other countries. China is ready to assume responsibility as a leader in the global system. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is convinced of this.

Lawrence Wong, Prime Minister of Singapore:

"China's rise is causing concern in many parts of the world. Not only because it's a rising power of enormous scale, but also because it's a power with a different economic model and political system. But I think the world needs to understand that China won't follow Western norms and will find its own path to modernity. And while it's still lagging far behind in growth, with its per capita GDP only one-fifth that of the United States, it has already surpassed it in some areas. It's a technological leader in many areas, in advanced manufacturing, in renewable energy. Therefore, we must accept that China isn't just a rising power; it's an established power. And the steps it's taken in recent years, I think, simply demonstrate that China is aware of its growing weight and is thinking about what responsibilities it can shoulder as a leader in the global system. For example, it recently decided to abandon the WTO's special and differential treatment provisions. In just the last year, he has redoubled his support for global institutions. And I think these are examples of how we must accept the fact that China will be a key player and perhaps a key leader in this new global system."

Lawrence Wong, Prime Minister of Singapore

While the US is building a strike alliance against China in the region, it's important for them to try to lull Beijing's vigilance. Donald Trump has embarked on an Asian tour to negotiate the relevant deals.

They say that separating Siamese twins is one of the most difficult surgeries. It's not just that two autonomous beings are fused together by Mother Nature's design, but that they often share only a single set of internal organs. Consequently, only one will be lucky enough to survive the operation.

And it appears Donald Trump, armed with the axe of sanctions, has embarked on precisely this delicate surgery. People have been talking about "Chimerica," which is based on Chinese industrial and American financial potential, for about 20 years now.

Of course, from a natural scientist's perspective, it's interesting to test it.

What happens if you separate the monetary system from the system that digests dead matter into material goods? There will likely be corpses. At least one, though perhaps two.

And so Trump is now playing the role of a mad professor who wants to cut something out of existence, while the Chinese leadership, on the contrary, is trying to preserve the old system of life. Or disconnect from the mad stomach, the same one that used to consume goods but has now rebelled.

Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China:

"The international situation is changing. Unilateral actions and protectionism have seriously impacted the global economic and trade order, with many countries facing unreasonably high tariffs. Policies of force, coercion, intimidation, and confrontation bring no benefit, but allow external forces to divide and manipulate us. Only by deepening cooperation will we promote sustainable economic growth!"

Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China

China is trying to create a united front among countries threatened with tariffs by the United States. Trump, for his part, is rushing to reach tariff agreements with as many countries as possible – in the last few days alone, he has succeeded with Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Japan.

The problem, however, is that such agreements are virtually impossible to implement. For example, Tokyo promised $550 billion in investment in the United States, but the Japanese, with their 20-year recession, simply don't have that kind of money. Malaysia promised $70 billion and was rewarded with exorbitant tariffs of 19%, which will surely and quickly kill trade and prevent investment, as the announced amount is completely exorbitant.

Michael Jeyakumar Devaraj, Chairman of the Malaysian Socialist Party:

"Our leaders are afraid of sanctions and tariffs. Malaysia, for example, will suffer greatly if our tariffs are higher than those of Thailand and Indonesia. We demand their abolition!"

Michael Jeyakumar Devaraj, Chairman of the Malaysian Socialist Party

Over the past six months, Trump has repeatedly cited a variety of figures when threatening China with tariffs: from 50% to 150%. Most recently, he mentioned 100%, but even that seems to have been rescinded and revised.

Before Trump's departure for Asia, it was announced that mutually acceptable solutions had been reached with the Chinese on a significant range of issues. One suspects that, while acceptable, these solutions are unlikely to have the desired effect. Tariffs aren't just for fun: they're used to help the United States regain not only its greatness but also its industrial power. But that's unlikely. It's well known that Chinese exporters are already circumventing extremely high tariffs, for example, by setting up factories in Asia where equipment is assembled from two or three components and shipped to the United States as if it were Indonesian or Vietnamese.

And no tariffs can reverse the situation here: deindustrialization certainly takes 20 years, but industrialization can take centuries—it requires personnel, capital, markets, and resources. Trump's idol is the man who was sure that gold would buy everything, and damask steel would take everything.

Donald Trump, US President:

"Nothing has been agreed upon yet. But we feel confident, we feel good! Ronald Reagan loved tariffs. He used them sparingly, but that was his mistake. Finance and trade weren't his strong suits. I always liked Ronald Reagan, and he liked tariffs!"

Donald Trump, US President

It's precisely after Reagan, under whom US industry disappeared, that Trump is forced to make America great again. China, however, has no need to crawl from insignificance to greatness: it's at its peak. A few days ago, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee took place. A seemingly purely partisan event, it was significant, however, because the Chinese leader received carte blanche to industrialize and modernize the country, and there was no sign of the rebellion that experts had promised at the plenary session.

Jiang Jinquan, Director of the Policy Research Department of the CPC Central Committee:

"The 20th CPC National Congress set the goal of basically achieving socialist modernization by 2035. The 15th Five-Year Plan period, which was discussed at the plenary session, is crucial for the implementation of China's grand modernization plan!"

Jiang Jinquan, Director of the Policy Research Office of the CPC Central Committee

Trump understands that using his surgical axe right now would be suicidal: severing or weakening trade ties through tariffs would trigger inflation, devaluation, the dollar's transformation into a local currency, and a thousand other catastrophes that would lead to his swift and certain political demise.

The threat of tariff surgery is a negotiating ploy. China, too, doesn't want trade wars: economically, the country is too tightly tied to the United States, to the point of complete fusion. On October 30th in Seoul, Trump and Xi will seek peace, albeit at a higher cost to one side, and one suspects it won't be China.