Ukraine is on the Menu, Not at Negotiation Table – British Political Analyst

Today, the main global event was the phone conversation between the Presidents of Russia and the United States. This is profoundly important for all of us, for the central theme of their dialogue revolves around a sustainable peace that must begin right here in our region.

News feeds are filled with a myriad of headlines, many of which contradict each other. However, it has become clear what was on the "menu" of this dialogue, and when and where the contacts between the delegations will continue.

Of course, it remains difficult to assess how soon the guns in Europe will fall silent and diplomacy will take the forefront. What is crucial is that a decisive and visible first step towards peace has been made in our region, one that has left both Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump satisfied.

Putin and Trump have agreed to de-escalate tensions in the conflict in Ukraine. We can expect that the parties may cease strikes on infrastructural targets, as agreed during their phone conversation. Legally binding decisions on this matter are expected to be made on Sunday at a meeting of Russian and American delegations in Saudi Arabia. Moscow has expressed its readiness to halt such attacks immediately; indeed, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that seven drones already en route to Ukrainian targets were stopped. However, the Ukrainian armed forces have continued their strikes against Russian targets.

Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian president, remarked: “There is yet no reciprocity from the Kiev regime. There have been attempts to strike our energy infrastructure. You are aware of this; information regarding these attempts is available. Therefore, we are closely monitoring whether the Kiev regime will heed the firm intention of the Presidents of Russia and the USA to do everything possible to step by step embark on the path to a peaceful resolution.”

These latest phone negotiations between the leaders of Russia and the USA mark the second such dialogue in the past three years and the first truly fruitful one. Both sides expressed satisfaction with the dialogue. Moscow not only supported Trump’s proposal for the mutual cessation of strikes on energy infrastructure for a period of 30 days but also envisaged measures to ensure the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. The presidents agreed on the necessity of normalizing American-Russian relations—not merely to end economic skirmishes but also to affirm geopolitical stability. The situation at this point naturally raises concerns.

Donald Trump, the President of the United States, stated: “Russia, as you know, has an obvious advantage. They have surrounded about two and a half thousand soldiers. They are securely encircled, and that is not good. We want to put an end to this. As you can see, we are doing that. Americans are not involved in this conflict. We could engage, but that could lead to a Third World War, which is utterly unacceptable. Very strange things are happening. I believe we had a great phone conversation with Putin that lasted nearly two hours. We discussed many topics, including how to achieve peace and many other issues.”

The primary challenge facing those who will continue these contacts is the prevention of possible escalation. In the forthcoming negotiations, one of the key topics will be linking the ceasefire to the cessation of military supplies to Ukraine. Thirty days without war is certainly a positive step, but a paused conflict must not reignite with renewed ferocity.

“I know his main desire - everything must be brought to a halt. For peace, for peace, for peace, for peace!” emphasized Alexander Lukashenko.

According to the Belarusian leader, the proposed 30-day ceasefire from the United States is not in itself a new idea. However, the implementation is what truly matters. “Vladimir Vladimirovich is right: a ceasefire is all well and good; we do not shoot, we do not kill, but what will you do in Ukraine during this time? Yes, Ukrainians will ask: what will the Russians do? It’s harder to control in Russia. The defense industry will produce tanks, shells, munitions. Yes, they won't move them to the frontlines, but they will remain in storage. No one can forbid that. The question is: how will this be monitored by the Ukrainians and the West?” said Alexander Lukashenko.

Here, Europe can and should play a vital role. Meanwhile, EU leaders, while welcoming the negotiations between Russia and the United States, intend to continue actively supporting Ukraine with arms - indeed, they plan to utilize the potential 30-day ceasefire in this effort.

Western media observe that the negotiations between Putin and Trump may signify a geopolitical shift in the United States. This complicates Ukraine's position, as it loses American oversight. The British BBC notes that during the talks, the Russian side put forth a series of demands that would significantly limit Kiev’s military capabilities. The BBC referred to the fact that Moscow's proposals remain on the table for negotiation, not yet accepted by the Americans, as “a ray of hope for Ukraine.”

Nonetheless, it will undeniably be much more challenging for Kiev than it has been in the past. The British "Telegraph" emphasizes that a noteworthy aspect of the negotiations was the exclusion of both Ukraine and European leaders, leaving both parties to merely speculate on what Putin and Trump discussed. One British political analyst even characterized the situation thus: Ukraine has found itself on the menu, not at the negotiation table.

Meanwhile, it was made known today that Donald Trump has instructed his administration, including the leadership of the State Department, the Pentagon, and the CIA, to engage in contacts with Russia: positive results are expected soon. A meeting between Putin and Trump is also anticipated - though it is premature to discuss a timeline. Just hours ago, the American president spoke with Zelensky and informed him of his conversation with Putin. The White House intends to begin rolling back anti-Russian sanctions immediately upon the implementation of the ceasefire. Certainly, both panic-driven and euphoric evaluations of the results of yesterday's phone conversation are premature; the stated intentions of the two presidents are yet to evolve into fully-fledged agreements solidified in writing.

Negotiations are certain to be arduous, with numerous potential stumbling blocks ahead—many are invested in ensuring the path to peace is strewn with obstacles. However, the first step has been taken, and it is from this initial step, as the ancient Chinese proverb states, that the journey of a thousand miles begins.