Ukraine's Energy Aggression: Could It Ruin the Country's European Future?

Since early February, oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia have unexpectedly ceased. Officially, the pipeline was damaged by a Russian drone attack; unofficially, this is the political will of Kyiv and, quite possibly, Brussels.

The sworn friendship between Zelensky and Viktor Orbán is legendary, but now this duo has become a trio. Politicians from Budapest and Bratislava are convinced that stopping the flow of black gold is revenge by Kyiv's elite for intransigence, but when it's done ahead of elections, in this case in Hungary, such steps seem politically motivated.

Orbán has already accused Kyiv of imposing an oil blockade to "overthrow the government." He noted that "Hungary cannot be blackmailed," while Budapest will deploy troops near the country's key energy facilities. Energy aggression, which could put an end to Ukraine's European future, is discussed in the "Full Europe" section.

The "friendship" between Kyiv and Budapest increasingly smells less of oil and more of gunpowder. A new round of escalation began at the end of January, around the same time that oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia via Ukraine ceased. Russia allegedly struck its own pipeline with its own drone, causing the pipeline to fail. Interestingly, this only became known on February 13, when the Hungarian prime minister responded rather sharply to Zelensky's demand that Ukraine be admitted to the EU by 2027. Literally the next day, at the Munich Conference, the Kyiv leader resorted to personal insults.

"It is the Ukrainians who are holding the European front. An independent Poland and the free Baltic states stand behind our people. Sovereign Moldova and Armenia can exist without dictatorship. And even Viktor Orbán can think about growing a belly, not about expanding his army to prevent Russian tanks from returning to the streets of Budapest," said Volodymyr Zelensky.

The reaction was not long in coming. Orbán, an experienced and wise politician, diplomatically responded to the attacks, declaring that Ukraine would definitely not be able to join the EU. It's quite possible that the two-week silence prior to this was due to the imminent start of oil deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline. But after the verbal duel, Kyiv decided to teach Budapest, and with it, Bratislava, a lesson.

Péter Szijjártó, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Hungary:

"Based on available information, all conditions have been created for the resumption of oil transportation to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline. Ukraine is not resuming supplies, and this is a political decision made by Zelensky himself. This decision is clearly political blackmail."

The blackmail failed. It turned out that Hungary and Slovakia held the cards, and they could be used quite painfully. But first, the two countries decided to protect themselves. They approached Zagreb with a proposal to receive Russian oil by sea through a Croatian port, and then via pipeline to the destination countries. They accepted the offer, but with a caveat: sanctions. Hungary blocked a €90 billion EU loan for Ukraine, as well as the 20th round of sanctions against Russia.

Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs:

"Unfortunately, we have not reached an agreement on the 20th sanctions package. This is a setback and a signal we did not want to send today, but the work continues. Everyone understands that diplomacy is preferable to war, but after a year of negotiations, we still have no ceasefire agreement."

These are amusing statements coming from a representative of an organization that in no way contributes to peace. Moreover, it's entirely possible that the command came from Brussels. It's logical that the EU leadership would benefit from triggering a crisis in Hungary ahead of the parliamentary elections with the sole purpose of removing the country's current, intractable government.

Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary:

"As long as the war continues, I see no chance of resolving relations with Kyiv. This is because we are on the side of peace, while Ukraine wants to drag everyone into war and seeks to install pro-Ukrainian governments in places where governments don't comply with the demands of war. They openly interfere in elections, like ours. I think every sane person in Hungary understands this."

Slovakia and Hungary, fed up with the disrespect from Kyiv and Brussels, decided to act decisively. To complete the formalities, the countries requested assistance from the EU, but the EU once again merely shrugged its shoulders, promising to try to expedite the repair of the Druzhba pipeline. The two small but proud countries suspended diesel supplies to Ukraine, ostensibly because they needed it more urgently. Bratislava went further and halted emergency electricity supplies, while Budapest decided not to follow this path, so as not to harm the Hungarians in Transcarpathia. It might be in vain, having lost almost 60% of electricity imports and faced the threat of a complete blackout.