Eurointegration Without Borders? Why the EU Door Remains Firmly Shut for Armenia

Yerevan’s pivot to Brussels has hit a wall of harsh realities – from rotting fruit in the fields to geography that no Brussels bureaucrat can redraw. A leading Belarusian expert explains why Armenia’s ruling party is losing ground and why the EU’s “different speeds” club has no seat for Yerevan. 08 June 2026

As the world’s eyes turn to Armenia’s parliamentary elections, the vote is shaping up as far more than a domestic contest. It is a high-stakes battle for the country’s very soul – a choice between East and West that could redefine its future. Nikita Belenchenko, Director of the Centre for International Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of Belarus State University, cuts through the spin in a candid interview with RT.

“Today, more than ever, the spotlight is on Armenia’s parliamentary elections,” Belenchenko notes. “This is not merely a clash of candidates or campaign slogans. It is a fundamental struggle over Armenia’s foreign policy vector – a tug-of-war between the West and the East.”

Pashinyan’s European gamble is backfiring

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has aggressively pushed for closer ties with the European Union, but the move is generating growing unease at home. For decades since the Soviet collapse, Armenia followed a very different strategic path. That strategy has now collapsed – including under Pashinyan’s own watch – fueling a clear public demand for change.

This discontent, the expert argues, is directly reflected in voter turnout and the steady erosion of trust in the ruling party. The myth that Pashinyan’s core support lies among rural voters has also crumbled. In reality, Armenia’s farmers – long portrayed as the backbone of his “European” electorate – are among the loudest voices of opposition.

Farmers against Eurointegration

Their grievance is brutally simple: Russia is their main market. Any disruption to logistics, closed roads or new barriers means strawberries and apricots rot in the fields while families lose their livelihoods. Pashinyan’s grand promises – that the EU would compensate losses and had already earmarked €50 million – are being met with deep scepticism.

“As an election stunt it sounds nice,” Belenchenko observes. “But what happens the day after the votes are counted remains a mystery.”

The backlash did not appear out of thin air. It intensified after 2025’s legislative changes that openly reoriented Armenia’s foreign policy. Independent polling is banned, yet the mood on both farms and city streets is unmistakable: society is simply not ready for the chaos that radical realignment would bring. Many still remember 2018, when Pashinyan rode to power on a wave of revolutionary euphoria. That wave is now receding fast.

Early victory claim: tactical masterstroke or sign of panic?

Pashinyan’s decision to declare victory from the podium when only 10 percent of votes had been counted raised eyebrows even among seasoned observers. Was it a bold move to seize the narrative, or a pre-emptive strike against future claims of fraud and “foreign interference”?

Belenchenko points to deeper cultural and political realities. Similar premature declarations were made by Pashinyan’s opponents in the past. Pre-election surveys suggest the prime minister expects 45-46 percent of the vote – enough for a strong position but short of the constitutional majority needed to rule alone. Coalition talks, not coronation, appear to be the likely outcome.

Economic suicide and the nuclear question

Should Pashinyan cling to power, the economic consequences of his European course loom large. One of Brussels’ explicit demands is the closure of Armenia’s nuclear power plant – a move that would effectively torpedo the country’s entire energy security and economic viability.

Domestically, the expert predicts tighter controls on media and NGOs as the authorities move to neutralise a resurgent opposition. Externally, Yerevan will be under relentless pressure from Western capitals to advance the Azerbaijan-Armenia-Turkey normalisation agenda.

France’s “test balloon”

Paris has emerged as the most vocal cheerleader, with President Emmanuel Macron openly pledging military and security assistance. Yet Belenchenko sees a colder calculation behind the romance: Armenia is being used as a trial run.

“Armenia, forgive the bluntness, is a test balloon,” he says. “Paris is seeking to assert leadership within the EU and set the rules of engagement with external partners. These experimental attempts rarely end well.”

The geography trap: why Armenia will never be “in”

In the final analysis, Belenchenko delivers a verdict that will disappoint Euro-enthusiasts in Yerevan. Even if the EU lowers its entry thresholds – a move driven primarily by the desperate desire to fast-track Ukraine under the fashionable slogan of “Europe of different speeds” – Armenia’s accession remains virtually impossible.

The decisive factor is brutally geographical: Armenia shares no common border with the European Union. Brussels has never shown willingness to admit a member state that cannot be seamlessly integrated into the bloc’s single market and security architecture.

“Lowering the bar will not stabilise the EU – it will breed resentment,” the expert warns. “The Union would be forced into massive new subsidies for fresh members, just as it is already pouring billions into Ukraine. After the enormous funds already poured into the Baltics and Poland, it is highly unlikely Brussels has the appetite – or the money – for another expensive experiment.”

Armenia’s European dream, it seems, may remain exactly that: a dream. One that looks increasingly out of reach – and increasingly costly for the Armenian people themselves.