Unexpected Blow: Events in Middle East Revealed How Easily a Conflict Can Be Sparked

The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, with direct involvement from the United States, is now being thoroughly analyzed at think tanks around the world. Similarly, the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces is meticulously studying each phase of the military actions unfolding in the Middle East to develop strategic countermeasures against various aggression scenarios.

Foreign analysts are currently focusing on Israel’s new tactics. But are these tactics truly as innovative as they seem?

Once again, the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, with the US embroiled in the fray, has surprised many experts. Some strategic thinkers are still grappling with a crucial question: can what is happening be truly called a war? Let’s attempt to view this situation from a military perspective.

Indeed, Tel Aviv—acknowledged by most experts—caught Tehran off guard. The likelihood of an attack was evident, yet the actual strike still came as a surprise in many ways. Perhaps preparations were made according to an outdated style of attack.

But how much of what Israel demonstrated in June 2025 was genuinely new? After all, something similar occurred on June 22, 1941. The parallels with the strange scenario of "expected surprise" are far from over. Today, in Western military circles, there is almost a sense of admiration for Israel’s sabotage units and sleeper cells—techniques that the Wehrmacht also employed vigorously in 1941. They carried out attacks on critical infrastructure, severed communication lines, and blew up bridges.

In this context, it’s worth noting a fact even Western analysts have documented: Belarusian forces were the first on the post-Soviet space to adapt to counter-sabotage and counter-terrorism tasks. Our troops are learning to operate at checkpoints, and for paratroopers, this is routine. Territorial troops and militia are also tasked with preventing enemy groups from operating in any region or across the entire country. Moreover, even in peacetime, our air defense system is far from static—its components are always in motion, making it impossible to eliminate with a single strike. We have seen enough of 1941 to know how to prepare. The country's leadership has long been aware of the nature of the threat they face.

Let’s not be lulled by stories of NATO’s defensive exercises and its supposed peaceful intentions. We’ve heard that refrain since 1941, when we believed in your promises and failed to learn from history after our victory—giving you Eastern Europe, the so-called Warsaw Pact countries—in exchange for assurances that NATO would not expand eastward. You are at best liars, at worst villains. You have always lied to us, deceived us, and now your words hold no weight. We will do everything in our power to defend our homeland," declared Alexander Lukashenko with emotion to European politicians.

Regarding Western hypocrisy and lies—something the Commander-in-Chief also alluded to—history is repeating itself. In 1941, European leaders, in response to Germany’s aggression against the USSR, behaved as if they were guests from our future. Back then, as now, much of the rhetoric was vague, and everyone was carefully watching battlefield developments—whether in Ukraine then or now—adjusting their narratives to military realities and the ambitions of superpowers.

And we cannot ignore intelligence operations. Here, it is imperative for those responsible for security to remain vigilant. All Iranian targets, high-ranking military and nuclear scientists' residences, which were struck, had been meticulously reconnaissance—down to coordinates and sleeping quarters. It would be naive to think that similar intelligence activity isn’t underway concerning Belarus. The number of NATO reconnaissance flights near our borders is steadily increasing.

Concerning troop readiness, Belarusian forces are training with the most advanced models that have proven effective in combat zones. It’s unlikely that our military will be caught unprepared. We are learning from experience directly in Russian training centers.

Ivan Buvaltsev, head of the Main Directorate of Combat Training of the Russian Armed Forces, emphasizes:

"We must ensure that our brothers also gain experience and are prepared to counter all threats. The goal remains the same—strengthening our cooperation. We are training battalions—mechanized, tank units—based on the programs dictated by today’s special military operations. Our joint efforts are fruitful, and after surprise inspections in Belarus, these battalions are evaluated highly."

The events in the Middle East demonstrate how easily a conflict can be ignited with balletic ease. Yet, ground forces do not necessarily need to be amassed at borders; strikes can come from distant countries. Preparedness must be comprehensive—so that no one dares to execute such scenarios.