IMF: Global Economic Growth to Slow to 2.8% in 2025

According to the International Monetary Fund’s forecast, over the next five years, the global economy will increasingly rely on BRICS countries rather than members of the so-called Western "G7." Experts predict that this shift will be driven by new challenges and threats.

Specifically, IMF data indicates that global economic growth in 2025 will slow to 2.8%, down from 3.3% in 2024.

The most significant deterioration is expected in the United States, where growth could decline from 2.7% to 1.8%.

There is a noticeable shift of the world’s economic center from the West to the East. In the global landscape, developing countries—primarily China—will play a much larger role.

Escalation in the Middle East could also impact the global economic balance. Due to Israel's actions, Iran might block one of the crucial oil transit routes—the Strait of Hormuz. This strait accounts for 15-20% of the world's oil exports and over 30% of liquefied natural gas shipments. Every day, 200-300 ships pass through, with traffic sometimes occurring every six minutes during peak hours.

According to Iranian experts, closing the strait could lead to a sharp reduction in oil supplies to the market, with crude prices potentially soaring to $250 per barrel.