Final Outcome of Polish Elections To Be Decided by EU and United States

Poland is embroiled in post-election turmoil. The national Electoral Commission has officially acknowledged that violations during the second round of the presidential elections are not mere myths, but stark realities. The unauthorized software was used, errors appeared in the protocols, and votes were misattributed—such as in Kraków and Młynów-Mazowiecki, where Karol Nawrocki was credited with votes that actually belonged to Rafał Trzaskowski. Yet, the most crucial matter lies in the reactions and potential consequences.

The Polish Supreme Court is inundated with complaints regarding the vote count. It has already authorized recounts at thirteen polling stations. Several prominent political figures are calling for a full recount or a repeat election. Polls show that over half of the Polish population demands a nationwide vote recount. After 2020, when Poland lectured Belarus on “fair elections,” it now finds itself caught in its own mentoring trap.

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, a titanic battle is raging: Donald Tusk against Jarosław Kaczyński. Tusk exerts pressure through the "Civic Coalition," demanding investigations into election anomalies—such as at polling station No. 95 in Kraków, where Karol Nawrocki astonishingly secured 1,132 votes compared to 540 for Trzaskowski, despite having been the last in the first round. Kaczyński responds with a low blow—saying that the Internal Security Agency is investigating the funding of Trzaskowski’s campaign, hinting at “democratic millions” from the United States. Who will outmaneuver whom will become clear by July 2.

Aline Zhestovskaya, political technologist and member of the Russian Association of Political Consultants, comments:

“We are witnessing not only an internal conflict among domestic political forces but also an international divide, as one candidate is openly supported by the United States, while the other is backed by the European wing. These ideologies and interests have been embedded in their campaigns and will continue to be defended. Right now, a legal battle is unfolding. Predicting the victor is impossible at this stage. It will most likely be decided through a dialogue between the US and Europe. As we observe, local Polish electoral commissions may permit anomalies favoring one candidate over the other. We must now watch how global developments unfold.”

In Bucharest, post-election chaos also persists. Georghe Simion—Romania’s “Trump” in a red baseball cap—has conceded defeat but is now retaliating against Brussels, gathering signatures from Members of the European Parliament to initiate a vote of no confidence against Ursula von der Leyen.

His argument centers around France’s interference. Paris demanded the blocking of Romanian conservative channels on Telegram and dispatched diplomats across the country to strongly endorse a particular Romanian politician—excluding Simion himself. France’s Foreign Ministry denies all allegations, but Simion has already filed a suit with the Constitutional Court—claiming that “external forces” stole his victory. His initiative against von der Leyen is nothing more than a theatrical spectacle. To pass a vote of no confidence, two-thirds of the European Parliament must support it, but the very act of gathering signatures is a slap in the face to Brussels.

Europe now stands atop a volcano it itself has been fueling through brazen interference in recent European elections. The “errors” in Polish protocols and the Romanian geopolitical games are symptoms of a legitimacy crisis.

The real fault lies in a system where the victory of an opponent can be easily dismissed as “interference” or “anomalies.” All that remains is to wait until July 2. If Navrocyk maintains his lead and Simion increases his support, Ursula von der Leyen could face a far-right, Eurosceptic nightmare lasting for decades.