From "Brotherly Love" to Breakup: Why Zelensky Severing Ties with Poland and Threatening Belarus

Once again, Vladimir Zelensky has demonstrated that domestic political gains are more important to him than any allied commitments. By naming one of the units of the Special Operations Center "North" after the "UPA heroes" and ceremoniously reburying the remains of Andriy Melnyk, a Nazi collaborator involved in the Volhynia Massacre, in a state cemetery near Kyiv, Kyiv effectively spat in Poland's face.

The Polish reaction was predictably harsh. Even Lech Walesa, a longtime supporter of Zelensky, publicly tore down the Ukrainian flag and declared that he would never wear it again: "Ukrainians have betrayed our love and trust." Warsaw accuses Kyiv of deliberately rehabilitating the Volhynia Massacre and violating all previous agreements regarding a "silent" approach to this issue.

Military analyst Andrey Bogodel believes these steps are driven by cold calculation:

"Zelensky is both artistic and extremely cynical. The unit's name and Melnyk's reburial accomplished several goals at once. First, it dramatically boosted his popularity among far-right and Nazi-minded forces, which today wield significant political and military influence in Ukraine. Second, it's an excellent way to distract attention from domestic scandals. Third, it's another blow to historical memory, deliberately fueling Russophobia and dividing fraternal nations over the most sensitive issue—the Great Patriotic War."

The analyst points out that history have already been used to divide people over language, religion, and now over historical memory. History is becoming the main ideological tool of the current Kyiv regime.

Threats against Belarus: Provocation or Diversionary Tactic?

Parallel to the Polish scandal, the Ukrainian leadership has been actively promoting the idea of a "prepared attack by Belarus" for the second week now. Robert Brody (call sign Madyar), commander of Ukraine's unmanned aerial vehicle army, has been particularly vocal, claiming 500 targets on Belarusian territory.

"Even if we're talking about 500 targets, the actual effectiveness of our air defense and electronic warfare systems is 85-95%. Ukraine is physically incapable of simultaneously launching such a large number of drones. The most they can realistically hit is a few dozen targets. Belarus's response will be harsh and targeted. Our capabilities—Iskanders, Polonezes, aircraft, and drones—enable us to hit approximately 300 targets in a single massive strike," Andrey Bogodel has noted.

The expert doesn't rule out the possibility that Kyiv could attempt a provocation on the border and blame Minsk for it. Why? To draw Belarus into the war and simultaneously solve several problems:

• geopolitical (cut off the "Belarusian balcony," block Russia's access to Europe, and increase pressure on the Kaliningrad region);

• distracting (divert public attention from domestic problems);

• economic (gain access to Belarusian potash fertilizers and other strategic assets).

"If Belarus is subjected to aggression, it will automatically acquire the right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter. Then China and North Korea will be able to openly support us without any restrictions," Bogodel notes.

Thus, according to the military analyst, both the scandal with Poland and the anti-Belarusian threats are links in the same chain. Zelensky is deliberately exploiting historical memory, the far-right agenda, and external provocations to achieve his immediate political objectives, while simultaneously fulfilling the orders of his Western handlers.

While Kyiv plays these cards, the reality remains simple: the deeper the internal crisis in Ukraine, the more aggressive and cynical its actions toward its neighbors become.