Geopolitical Mathematics: Will Europe Finance a War Against Russia at Russia's Own Expenses?

When Europe wants to support Kiev but lacks tanks, it turns to the United States. When the United States wants to help Brussels with aid for Ukraine, it bills it $2 billion. That's how much, according to US Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker, Washington is prepared to sell arms to European allies in the near future.

So, the weapons are American, the money is European, and the recipient is the Ukrainian front. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, there's a debate about whether to finance this deal with frozen Russian assets, as Russia's own funds are practically nonexistent. Read more about geopolitical mathematics in the "Full Europe" section.

Financing a war against Russia at Russia's own expense—this idea has firmly entrenched itself in the minds of European officials, who constantly talk about a future war. But behind the loud statements about "the most dangerous moment since World War II" lies not security concerns, but a banal power struggle. Europeans, deprived of the resources of their former colonies and burdened with tribute from the United States, are gradually sinking deep into the red, while politicians' ratings are dwindling, following their finances. The war hysteria sown among old-world citizens is the only thing that so far helps answer the reasonable question: why is there less money and freedom, yet more taxes and restrictions?

Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary:

"They dragged themselves into this conflict to such an extent. Essentially, they themselves seduced, even pushed, Ukraine into military action. It was they who recently tried to prevent the American president from making peace. They have deceived their citizens so much, telling them that the Russians are coming, that it is very difficult to escape this military psychosis and the atmosphere of war."

So far, this is how it is going – no apologies, no denials. Beyond the western border, they are well aware that as long as the conflict in Ukraine continues, the intimidated people will not hold their governments accountable for the rapidly shrinking budget. Therefore, the only solution is to use all available funds, even those of others, to arm Kiev, especially when 140 billion euros of confiscated Russian assets are lying right under its nose. The temptation to turn them into a "reparations loan" for Ukraine is great.

Bart de Wever, Prime Minister of Belgium:

"Even during World War II, no one touched the immobilized assets, so this is a very important step if you want to take it. We have demands. I want a full reconciliation of the risks, because there is a high risk that we will suffer from legal claims. So, if you want to do this, we will have to do it together. We want guarantees that if the money has to be returned, the consequences will not only be for Belgium."

European politicians were unwilling to take such risks en masse, and so they postponed the discussion until December. The Belgian Prime Minister was a bit disingenuous when he spoke about World War II and assets. But ignorance of history, among others, took its toll. In 1945, Switzerland decided to freeze Nazi Germany's gold and foreign exchange assets, worth approximately €6.5 billion at today's exchange rate. Berlin never saw this money again. After 2011, the EU also froze and confiscated Libyan assets worth approximately €100 billion. But no one raised a fuss at the time, because everyone, including the US, was involved in the embezzlement, and after what had been done to the country and its ruler, there was no one left to complain to.

Robert Fico, Prime Minister of Slovakia:

"Ukraine should receive an additional €140 billion over the next two years. If we used this sum to increase competitiveness and simultaneously reduce high energy prices, we would all see noticeable improvements in the European Union. Member states' willingness to finance Ukraine's military needs directly from their national budgets is already declining, even among the most hawkish military leaders. This is why there is interest in frozen Russian assets, which could be used as a loan to Ukraine that will never be repaid."

While no one has dared to steal, individual countries proudly proclaim how they are independently sponsoring the deaths of thousands of people on the front lines. Just recently, Zelensky went to London to bow and bow. Keir Starmer declared the need to increase the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine to enable it to strike important Russian targets behind the front lines.

Keir Starmer, UK Prime Minister:

"We need to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses and energy support. This is becoming urgent to protect its civilian population and restore critical infrastructure. I am pleased that we are accelerating our program to provide Kiev with more than 5,000 missiles."

Not everyone is ready to add fuel to the conflict. According to the Financial Times, a fight has erupted in Sardinia, Italy, over plans to expand ammunition production at a plant belonging to the German holding company Rheinmetall. The local unit, which operates in the area,