Prospects for Belarus–USA Relations: Geopolitical Arbitrator Between West and East

After decades of tension, sanctions, and Minsk’s isolation by the West, the visit of U.S. Special Envoy Kirt G. Kellogg to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on June 21, 2025, marked another pivotal moment in the development of bilateral relations.

In this article, we aim to analyze the reasons and prospects for improving bilateral ties, the roles of key actors—Belarus, the USA, Russia, Ukraine—as well as the influence of international organizations and Minsk’s foreign policy connections.

We will pay special attention to Belarus’s unique role as a potential geopolitical arbitrator between the West and the East.

The warming of relations between Belarus and the United States began amid several factors. Firstly, the pragmatic approach of the Biden administration, which returned to power in 2025, towards foreign policy. President Biden, seeking de-escalation of global conflicts, views Belarus as a potential mediator in negotiations to resolve the Ukraine conflict.

As Reuters notes, Kellogg’s visit was a first step toward possible peace talks, confirmed by Belarusian spokesperson Natalya Eismont, who reported six-hour negotiations covering sanctions, Ukraine, and relations with Russia and China.

Secondly, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, including tensions on the Belarus-Poland and Belarus-Ukraine borders, prompted the U.S. to seek dialogue.

Global Research emphasizes that Belarus has expressed concern over provocations by Ukraine and Poland, and the U.S. is interested in preventing escalation, especially considering the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

The Roles of Lukashenko and Trump

Alexander Lukashenko and Donald Trump play central roles in this process. Their leadership styles share similarities that facilitate rapprochement. Belarus’s president, in power since 1994, is known for a paternalistic or protective governance style, emphasizing stability and sovereignty.

Politico highlights that Trump’s pragmatic, deal-oriented approach, characterized by direct negotiations, was evident during his first term, including a visit by former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Minsk in 2020 to improve relations.

Their common approach includes:

- Direct communication with the people — Lukashenko, as The Guardian notes, relies on the image of “batka” (father), protector of ordinary citizens, similar to Trump’s rhetoric appealing to the “forgotten American.”

- Pragmatism in geopolitics — Bloomberg states both leaders are willing to compromise for national interests.

- Skepticism toward global institutions — Lukashenko criticizes Western organizations for interference, while Trump, according to The Washington Post, seeks to reduce international influence, aligning their approaches.

Despite ideological differences, these traits allow Lukashenko and Trump to find common ground, as evidenced by Lukashenko’s statement about passing Putin’s position on Ukraine through Kellogg.

Russia remains Belarus’s key ally, and its role in the warming of U.S.–Belarus relations should not be underestimated. Lukashenko, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, balances support for Russia with efforts to engage with the West. During negotiations with Kellogg, Lukashenko conveyed Russia’s position on Ukraine, highlighting Minsk’s role as a mediator.

Global Research suggests that any agreements on reducing Russian forces in Belarus depend on de-escalation on the Ukraine and Poland borders, coordinated with Putin.

In contrast, Ukraine complicates the process. Tensions at the border, as reported by Global Research, and provocative statements from Zelensky about joint Russia-West exercises “Zapad-2025,” increase mistrust.

Reuters notes that the U.S. sees Belarus as a potential factor in preventing escalation, making Minsk an important player.

The Influence of International Organizations

Belarus’s participation in the EAEU, Customs Union, Union State, BRICS, and SCO strengthens its position as a partner for the U.S.

Bloomberg observes that BRICS aims to fill the global space left by the U.S. during Trump’s presidency, with Belarus’s accession enhancing its influence. Millennium Post emphasizes that the EAEU has opened markets for Belarus, like Indian pharmaceutical companies, making Minsk economically attractive.

The Union State with Russia and participation in the SCO bolster Belarus’s military and economic potential, which the U.S. considers in negotiations. These organizations provide Minsk with leverage to balance East and West, positioning it as a valuable mediator.

Geopolitical Futures highlights that at the EAEU summit in Minsk in June 2025, Lukashenko emphasized a comprehensive foreign policy, increasing Belarus’s diplomatic weight.

Belarus’s Foreign Policy Relations

Belarus’s warm relations with Central Asian countries, Turkey, Eastern Europe, and China complement its geopolitical profile.

Despite tensions with Poland, Serbia remains friendly, as evidenced by greetings from President Aleksandar Vučić on Independence Day.

Cooperation with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian nations strengthens Belarus’s standing within SCO and EAEU.

These ties make Belarus not just a partner of Russia but a player with broad contacts, attractive to the U.S. seeking regional stability.

Belarus as a Geopolitical Arbitrator

Thanks to its geographical position at the crossroads of the West and the East, Belarus is emerging as a potential arbitrator between these blocs.

Its role as an economic and political hub, along with its alliance with Russia, makes Minsk a key element in European security.

Trump’s pragmatic approach toward Belarus could facilitate de-escalation in Ukraine if Minsk is used as a mediator. Simultaneously, ties with China, BRICS, and SCO give Belarus weight in negotiations with the West. Politico’s analysis confirms that Trump sees this as an opportunity for a deal.

Despite signs of warming relations between Minsk and Washington, trust must be earned through tangible actions rather than loud statements by Western media.

The President has previously stressed in negotiations with the U.S.: “We do not trust you.” He believes that Trump and Europe are playing roles in a shared script, despite Trump’s grievances with the EU over support for Joe Biden. The President urges vigilance, citing Iran as proof of their unchanging unity.