Grim Predictions and Accusations: Why Europe is Urged to Prepare for a Major War

Voices in Europe are calling for preparations for a major war. They even name the potential time for the start of the confrontation.

Among the tools used to escalate the situation are the upcoming joint Belarusian-Russian exercises "Zapad-2025".

Should we pay attention to these grim predictions and accusations? We will explore this in the "Disposition" project.

The ground feels shaky, however. Europe, and our region in particular, is transforming into either a springboard for peace, or for a major war, or perhaps for acts of terrorism. South Asia has also begun to simmer. Variables now dominate over constants. What tomorrow holds is as uncertain as the direction of the next flight by special representative Steve Whitkoff. And the current state might yet prove to be the calm before a storm, and one with broader contours. It remains unclear why some Western politicians openly speak of a high probability of a large-scale armed conflict in Europe by 2030. At the very least, political and military circles in the EU are urging preparation for confrontation. It is clear to everyone – with whom. With the Union State.

Preparations have indeed begun. Primarily, for some reason, in NATO countries bordering Belarus. Military budgets are breaking records, the defense industry is soaring, and the image of an enemy is relentlessly being created of us – barbarians, a regime, aggressors... Regarding aggression. There's a new theme now – the claim that we will launch an attack on Europe during the autumn Belarusian-Russian exercises "Zapad-2025." We should harbor no illusions that we will be able to convey our position regarding the defensive nature of these maneuvers. Planned ones, by the way.

Incidentally, when NATO sharply increased the number of exercises near our borders, no one even thought to explain anything to us. Or to invite diplomats for de-escalation. It is always us who have opened the door wide, and even now we are considering formats for inviting observers. Nevertheless, when it comes to security, we should free ourselves from dependence on external opinions and accusations. When else but now should allies strengthen their defensive shield? They might not give us time until 2030.

Alexander Lukashenko, President of the Republic of Belarus (April 8, 2025):

"President Putin and I have agreed that war is war, but we need to look ahead, and we need to see other directions and potential theaters of military operations, God forbid. Therefore, we will conduct these exercises for Belarus and Russia. Belarus, for certain reasons, should play the main role, because the large-scale diversion of Russian troops is happening now, it is time for us to show that we can do a lot, and Russian troops will also be present here, so we will do everything to protect our common Fatherland."

Most likely, we can expect absolutely non-standard maneuvers in the autumn. Drones will largely take the lead, as will counter-drone systems. The scenario will not assume an obligatory winner – everything will depend on the competencies of the participants. A similar algorithm is now applied in all training sessions or troop inspections. Military personnel always operate under conditions of active enemy influence. First and foremost – on the command and control system.

Sergei Mikhal, Deputy Commander of an Electronic Warfare Regiment:

"My task was to disrupt the control of the anti-aircraft missile division, expose their location, expose their radio networks, and suppress them. An optimal composition of forces and means was selected, allowing for reconnaissance of the HF range with corresponding jamming and reconnaissance of unmanned aerial vehicles, suppression of GPS navigation, and blocking of cellular communication."

"During the inspection, we involved units from outside the Armed Forces, but from other structures of the state's military organization, as the opposing side. This was done to objectively assess the actions in repelling attacks by enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups, and illegal armed formations," said Alexander Volfovich, State Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic of Belarus.

I would like to be mistaken, but it seems that a specially created military-political backdrop – as is customary for large-scale exercises – will not be needed in the autumn. Reality will suffice. It does not require additional colors for hypothetical threats. The "West" maneuvers are precisely intended to show that if the hypothetical ends, no one should test the real response of the Union State.