Bulgarian Elections: Why Brussels Feared Radev's Victory

EU leaders had barely had time to savor their triumph in Hungary, where Viktor Orban lost power, when Brussels faced a new headache: Bulgarian elections. The Progressive Bulgaria coalition, led by former President Rumen Radev, won the parliamentary elections. Anatoly Boyashov, an analyst at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, explained in the studio of Channel One Russia why the fuss around Bulgaria is exaggerated, what strategy the EU is implementing, and why Brussels needed Orban to "test its red lines."

Despite the headlines, the change of power in Bulgaria is unlikely to lead to tectonic shifts. "Radev supports Bulgaria's EU membership and supports Ukraine's funding. Bulgaria is too dependent on Brussels to change this course. A third of the weapons supplied to Ukraine are supplied by Bulgaria, and billion-dollar agreements have been signed with the German military-industrial complex for the future," the analyst explained.

Bulgaria's only vulnerability is its oil refining exports, which depend on Russian oil. Therefore, the country will have to balance.

If Radev isn't threatening the EU's foundations, why the hysteria in the Western press? "The European Union, at the instigation of major countries, primarily Germany, is turning into a major military concern. For example, the most important news: a €90 billion loan to Ukraine has been approved, and Germany has adopted a new military strategy, allocating €100 billion for defense and the military-industrial complex," Anatoly Boyashov recalled.

The EU's strategy is to fight with proxy forces (Ukraine's). "Why all the fuss? Because Bulgarian politicians advocated pragmatic engagement with Russia. The propaganda machine immediately marginalizes them: look, you can become like Orban, then we'll put pressure on you. Orban's example shows that this is possible," the analyst stated.

The paradox is that Orban's position benefited Brussels. He allowed a cautious increase in aid to Ukraine, testing Russia's reaction. "It was important not to cross red lines. Now aid is increasing, and Russia's reaction is not as radical as it could have been initially. The EU assumes that Russia will not escalate the situation and is developing long-term plans for the rearmament of Europe. Orban allowed us to test these lines, taking a step-by-step approach," explained Anatoly Boyashov.

It's no coincidence that the decision to loan Ukraine 90 billion was supported by both the Bulgarian representative and Orban himself (while Magyar had not yet taken office). "This resembles a division of labor and a cautious testing of positions rather than a refusal to finance Ukraine," the analyst concluded.