Conflict on Middle East, or how mathematics of war is hitting our pockets?

There’s an old saying: when the U.S. president returns to the White House and falls silent, trouble is brewing. Trump, already back in the darkness, ignored reporters and refused to answer questions.

But who else could be asked about the number of casualties, oil and gas supplies, or the dollar’s exchange rate—if not him? Yet, so many questions remain, and not a single answer is forthcoming.

In the Rose Garden, Trump gazed at statues of Jefferson and Franklin. He stood, staring at the stone-faced former presidents, while reporters tore into him with questions.

Let’s leave the experts to decipher this silence and the Pentagon’s plan, which has already gone awry in its dealings with Iran. Instead, let’s turn to the mathematics—no, not school arithmetic, but the kind that makes stock markets close and emirs clutch calculators.

Oil and Gas: From the Abyss to the Brink

What’s soaring? Gold. It has broken through $5,400 an ounce. This figure is a veiled cry for help. Money is fleeing from paper to metal because confidence in the “world order” has evaporated. The dollar? Officially, it still stands—try buying anything with it besides virtual futures. Ironically, shares of Russian companies are climbing—markets sense where the sands are shifting, where flames and money will soon burn.

Brent crude oil shot up to $82 per barrel this morning—an increase of 13%. The Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock markets simply refused to open on Monday, and Tuesday might be a day off too. And this is just the beginning. The real concern is the Strait of Hormuz— the bottleneck through which 20% of the world’s oil and 30% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass. Now, it’s essentially blocked. unofficially, of course, but the fact remains: tankers are stationary, ships are not moving, and some have already capsized. Goldman Sachs estimates that if the strait remains closed for a month, European gas prices could jump by 130%. The UAE has already lost $5 billion in just 48 hours since the war began.

When missiles whistle over the Dubai skyline near the Burj Khalifa, the desire to buy local real estate evaporates along with it—along with hopes of basking in the sun. Up to 100,000 tourists are stranded in the UAE, and nearly as many in Oman. Dubai hotels have started evicting guests (money’s run out), and daily losses for tour operators reach $1.5 million.

Oil Prices Will Surge Higher

Andrey Manoilo, a political scientist at Moscow State University, comments: “Oil prices are already rising, and I believe they will continue to climb if Iran indeed blocks the Strait of Hormuz. Initially, prices will spike, then likely fall back once the U.S. and its allies flood the market—selling off Venezuelan heavy oil, for example. They could do that—raising the stakes sharply. OPEC has already agreed to increase oil production. If prices surge temporarily, they’ll probably be pulled back, close to the levels before the U.S. military intervention in Iran.”

A Second Front: New Players Enter the Game

The number of participants in this conflict is growing. Hezbollah has joined in—Lebanese fighters launched rockets at Israel, which responded by bombing Beirut. Israel’s Chief of Staff has already announced the start of an offensive. This is no longer “mutual courtesy”—it’s a second front. The question remains: will the conflict expand further? Turkey remains silent but watchful. Iran has declared it will not negotiate with the U.S. anymore. Trump talks of a four-week war— but four weeks is optimistic. Pessimists see Vietnam in the sands, with oil replacing rice.

If the flames engulf the entire Gulf, sparks will reach everywhere. Oil will skyrocket, gas prices will soar, gold will climb—and we will be left watching, drawing our conclusions.

History knows moments like these: yesterday was one reality, tomorrow will be another, and in between lie mountains of corpses. We’ve seen this in Afghanistan and Iraq—hundreds of thousands dead, and no one has yet answered the question: “What was it all for?”

Now, the sands are boiling again. Victims’ numbers will soon cease to be counted or named. What will be left of the old world when everything cools? Only gold in safes, ashes in the wind, and endless mass graves covered in sand—so as not to tarnish the view for tourists.