Strait of Hormuz as Iran's Geopolitical Trump Card - How Middle East Conflict Will Develop

Lebanon has been actively involved in news coverage of Iran, Israel, and the United States. Due to Israeli bombings, Tehran has again closed the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions with Washington. The situation was discussed with Nikita Tatishchev, an analyst at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, on Channel One.

The conflict in the Middle East has acquired a new dimension. Lebanon has entered the negotiation process as a separate force, and previously agreed-upon peace provisions have frayed.

Lebanon is no stranger to the region. Its conflict with Israel has been ongoing for decades. But in the current negotiation process, it has asserted itself for the first time as an independent force. "Lebanon, as a third player and simply a third force, has been in this region for quite some time. The conflict between Lebanon and Israel is also nothing new. But the current situation risks delaying negotiations because the peace provisions haven't been fully worked out," the analyst explained.

The agreement, among other things, stipulates a ceasefire throughout the region. From Tehran's perspective, this means removing Lebanon from the attack. From the perspective of the allied coalition, it's something else entirely. Unresolved details have backfired. "The parties are making impossible demands on each other, and this indicates that reaching an agreement in the current configuration will be very difficult," Nikita Tatishchev stated.

Any lull in modern warfare is used by countries to gather their forces. It can't be any other way. "Every major country must learn from experience that short wars are now impossible. The United States has now learned this," the expert noted.

The reason is the changing nature of warfare itself. Wars are becoming drone wars. This is a fundamentally different level than 20 years ago. Every major country is having to deal with this situation on its own. "The US ceasefire is necessary even for some internal self-reflection. But this isn't the first time negotiations have been held and then collapsed. This is, after all, the backdrop of the Middle East," Nikita Tatishchev emphasized.

Incidentally, Iran is rightly criticizing Washington: "We were negotiating, why did you start all this mess?"

Even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, it will operate under different rules. And this is key. "For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is an important geopolitical trump card. In some ways, even more important than the latest weapons. And this trump card will be used one way or another," the analyst is confident.

The most obvious indicator of what's happening isn't political statements, but the rise in insurance indices. "Insurers around the world are reporting completely different figures. This is the first thing to look at, because the people working there are very good at counting money. This is one of the main indicators that the situation won't return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon," Nikita Tatishchev concluded.