What should Belarusian army expect from geopolitical shifts after US election?

The results of the US presidential elections have raised many questions. The key one is what will Donald Trump change in military policy?

It is important for us to know whether the new approaches and tasks of the American leader will have an impact on the security of Belarus.

The US will have a new president. Much depends on the American leader in the security sphere. And this is the main thing now. And here the change in vectors, strategy, and rhetoric of Washington can also affect Belarus. The military actions are taking place too close to us, which, by the way, are largely controlled from overseas.

What will Trump change? Few people know in view of the unconventional and charismatic character traits of this Republican. But! We can remember what he has already done in the number one position. And here Afghanistan immediately comes to mind. It was under Trump that the decision was made to withdraw troops from this country. The decision was implemented under Biden, which looked terrible. Now Trump's entourage is talking about the intention to withdraw the contingent from Syria.

On the other hand, such a somewhat peacekeeping position is leveled, for example, by Trump's lifting of Obama's restrictions on the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine in 2017.

Many experts argue that Trump is primarily guided by the logic of a businessman. If he continues to adhere to the economic paradigm, this will lead to maximum economizing on aid to Kiev and control over it. It should be understood: long-term contracts for the production of weapons and ammunition for Ukraine will not be canceled - Trump will not quarrel with his defense industry.

As for the actual military actions in the "independent" country, which the newly elected president promised to quickly stop, analysts' opinions differ. On the one hand, Trump received a majority in Congress and can implement any of his initiatives through legislators. And Trump's initiatives - and almost no one doubts this - can be very explosive. And now there will be no restraints. By the way, Trump promised to fill Ukraine with weapons if Moscow does not listen to America's position on the ceasefire. On the other hand, the former and future President is inclined to take radical steps with a plus sign in the negotiation process. It is enough to recall his unexpected meeting with the leader of North Korea.

By the way, a telephone conversation has already taken place with Zelensky after the elections, and signals have been made about establishing a dialogue with Putin. Well, what about Europe? In the EU, and this is bad for us, they have started talking even more intensively about the need to build up troops - now in the context of their own, European armed forces. That is, there will be even more Western troops nearby. It is not known, however, whether Trump will allow such autonomy to be played.

Ukraine should be discussed separately. There is a premonition of the inevitability of territorial losses in the air. And therefore, we must be extremely careful now. Kiev is looking for arguments to increase military support for the West and continue the confrontation. A provocative drone strike has already been carried out on Moscow. We can expect sharp provocations against Minsk as well. Here Trump will have to react, and perhaps in the right way for Zelensky. However, the Belarusian army is ready for such scenarios. The situation is under control and can be monitored. By the way, domestic intelligence officers can not only provide information, but also fight back.

So what should the Belarusian army expect from the geopolitical shifts associated with the electoral finale in the United States? Expect deterioration. The military always prepares for the worst options. To be better prepared. And not to depend on foreign presidents.